Wednesday, July 12, 2017

Trump's smokestack jobs not coming back, but can anything else bring back lots of middle class jobs?

The old jobs aren't coming back. What kind of jobs will there be in the future? Some futurists highlight two types of work that can’t easily be automated or performed by robots: Interpersonal work such as coaching, care giving and negotiating, and creative work such as developing new business opportunities and innovating. This, in an article in Yahoo Finance by columnist Rick Newman entitled; Tech experts diss Trump's jobs policy.

I say, much of this type of work, that is done now, doesn't pay well or is volunteer. Much of interpersonal work and care giving, for instance.

Creative work such as developing new business opportunities is there, but how often are new business opportunities needed? Will this employ millions upon millions of people?

Writing, conversation and photography is creative work. Much of it is posted on places like Facebook for free. Where's the payoff?

Seems like a broad based middle class boom for jobs is not likely, given what the near future looks like today, in my opinion. Technology is great for the consumer, but not necessarily great for the worker. We have consumer empowerment, such as booking our own flights online, but how can one earn a living in this environment? Not as a travel agent, for instance.

I would guess no more than 20% of the workforce will be needed in the "high tech," highly skilled jobs of the present and near future. This 20% is what the talk of needing more education is based on. What about the rest of us?

Possibly another 40% can be employed in professions such as nursing and teaching. My numbers are not exact, of course. Can average and entry level nurses or teachers afford to live in expensive cities such as Seattle? Not necessarily just the superstars.

Education can still be valuable for living a quality life and becoming an informed voter, but not necessarily for much of the service jobs that seem to be proliferating these days. Coffee shop baristas and so forth. It's good to be conversant in the humanities, as a coffee shop barista. Enlightening to customers, good for society. It's good art, but can the 80% of us still afford to live in our cities?

Wages are higher, these days, than in the 1960s, but certain costs, such as housing and healthcare, have gone so high, in the metro areas where a lot of the jobs are, that the days of the broad middle class may not be achievable. One can try to bring up wages, but if certain costs continue to outstrip wages, the middle class isn't coming back.

Somehow, we need to figure out how to make society work and be affordable for people in the jobs that most people will be working.

Also, to some extent, jobs could be an outdated concept. Figuring out how to survive, while doing gratifying volunteer work, is a trend I notice, around here in my city of Bellingham, WA. at least.

Rethinking economics for sure.