The worldwide pandemic would have still happened. We would have been severely impacted, but our government's response would have been a lot better organized and less chaotic.
Hillary Clinton would have gotten lots of the blame for the pandemic happening under her watch, but the blame would be misplaced.
The US death rate would have been lower with a better coordinated federal response, but it would still be a high death rate; just not quite as bad.
Republican led states would have still had higher per capita death rates than Democratic led states as a lot of the outcome would be, as it is now, dependent on local and state situations.
There would have been less civil unrest without Trump fomenting hatred from the presidential pulpit.
Still, the pendulum of dissatisfied voters might have put Trump, or some other Republican, into the Whitehouse in 2020.
I often think we've met the enemy and the enemy is us, but one can also say that leadership does have consequences. It's just that people tend to focus only on leadership, but the picture is a lot bigger than that.