Tuesday, February 03, 2026

The national debt; a big source of angst going forward.

The growing federal debt could erupt as a big issue in the near future. Anti tax sentiment and Trump's kneecapping of the IRS could decrease revenue. Add to this a slowing economy and the spending on ICE deporting some working people out of the country. There's the growing costs of incarceration. Ongoing costs for Medicare, Medicaid, the military and veterans benefits are hard to constrain.

Money has to be printed just to keep the government solvent which fuels another round of inflation. Home and other asset values could start rising again, stocks are still riding high. Trump's encroachment on independence of the Federal Reserve Board has world bond markets jittery.

If another round of asset inflation happens, there will be pressure for wages to go up so folks could afford a place to live. This, in turn, usually leads to price increases in other "nickel and dime" goods and services in the economy, such as food as businesses pass on their increased costs to consumers.

To reduce anxiety, think of money as just poker chips. We could have to inflate our way out of debts. Tomorrow's inflation just makes yesterday's debt smaller by comparison. It does have consequences, but maybe not the end of the world in a future where medium home values rise if wages and other prices can rise by the same percentages as well.

Cash savings looses value, but savers loose in times of low interest rates anyway. This could hurt retirees, but there may have to be more spending to help everyone keep up. It's could be just a matter of moving decimal points over. Yes, I know it's not that simple, but I am trying not to loose too much sleep at night.

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