There may be a flaw in the idea that the Demographic Transition to sustainable population depends on prosperity.

During college I studied something called the Demographic Transition. It basically said that before there was modern medicine and sanitation, both deathrates and birthrates were high. As deathrates decline, there comes a transition period where birthrates remain high and populations explode. As time goes on, this is followed by a drop in birthrates and stable population.

Economic development was seen as the key to a stable world of low death and sustainable population. Problem is, now that the world has over 8 billion people, economic development, for all those people, can bring ecological catastrophe. The good news is that aside from economic development, there can be a change in value systems. Many poor countries have been able to reduce their birthrates without necessarily becoming rich. Others, however, have lagged behind in reducing birthrates. This is one reason why I connect issues like gay rights, feminism and overall modernity to sustainability. Getting rich doesn't necessarily have to be a prerequisite for sustainable cultures with low deathrates.

Simple living and less materialistic aspirations, combined with modern values on sexuality, are needed.

Meanwhile, the idea that prosperity and material wealth is the key to sustainable populations has it's problems. Yes, people do need enough to survive, but much of the opulent wealth in the world is unneeded. Over consumption in rich nations, but also the opulent wealth of leaders in many poor nations is a problem. Military spending is another large and growing problem worldwide. Rich nations are now ramping up their military budgets while many poor nations have long spent large percentages of their small GDPs on warfare.

Here is something I just thought of. Population growth is a key to economic prosperity. These days, as the world's demographic transition is trending toward lower birthrates, many are worried that less young people can bring economic stagnation. As populations age, there are less young people to pay into Social Security, for instance. This creates an incentive to try an boost population growth.

I think the philosophy behind the Demographic Transition is broken. The road to sustainable population, through increasing prosperity, is an environmental minefield. Changing values about overall culture and sexuality are needed instead.

Here are some things to ask about the future.

Will more labor be needed in a world with more automation and AI technology?

Another question is, if there is a labor shortage, why don't richer countries jump at the chance to fill their labor shortage needs with immigration? There is no shortage of people wishing to migrate to better living situations, worldwide.

Most rich countries in the world are now cutting back on immigration. This might be because all 8 billion people, in the world, can't live like people live in rich countries. As people migrate to rich countries, it does put strains on housing, water, resources and transportation systems as people adopt richer lifestyles. Just look at the traffic. This, of course also assumes dependency on the automobile and the vast amount of space it takes up for parking and transportation.

Things need to be done differently. Our value systems need to change all over the world. Just increasing prosperity will not fix it.