Things seem to be improving in Syria.

I'm hoping normalization of relations between US and Syria is a good idea. Things seem to be better in Syria since the brutal Assad Regime was overthrown a while back. My information just from following news.

Things looked good in early 1990s reform of Soviet Union, but now the breakup of USSR has lead to backsliding; especially in Russia itself..

Things looked hopeful in the early 1990s as the Soviet Union was reforming and opening up to more human rights, freedom of speech and innovation.

I think the Soviet Union may have broken up into independent republics too quickly, however. Since then, things have been shaky and especially Russia, itself, has turned more toward a form of fascism. Russia is seeking to reconquer former Soviet republics, such as Ukraine. This has lead to a brutal war that has turned to stalemate.

Now Trump Administration, in USA, is changing course seeking an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine, possibly at any cost. This potentially a form of peace without justice.

We'll see how this turns out. Hopefully still a lot of unknowns as to what the long term situation will bring.

Biden still much better than what looks like what's going to be the alternative again.

It seems very foolish to blame Biden for the excesses of Netanyahu's military campaign in Gaza. Maybe Biden could call for a ceasefire and threaten to withhold military aid, but I think Netanyahu would just go ahead and do what he is doing anyway.

Meanwhile, many Republicans, backed by Trump, would be more apt to fully support Netanyahu. Republicans have an aid bill, in the House, with military aid for Israel while removing aid for Ukraine.

Biden is calling for restraint in that war but our country may not have much say in what other countries do; in the short run at least. I would guess that Israel has plenty of weapons without us.

I think it's terrible what Hamas has done, but the rightwing government, in Israel, can overreact.

Meanwhile, here in this country, many American Jews and others are critical of the right wing politics within Israel. Unfortunately some on the left, in this country, are taking their anger out on Jewish people. Left wing opposition would be better directed at some of the Christian Right which is more backing of Netanyahu's politics in Israel.

In pretty much every situation, anger tends to be misdirected and does more harm than good. Anger could bring Trump back to the Whitehouse.

On a note of optimism, the Gay Games 2023 are being held in Hong Kong.

Yes, Hong Kong that is pretty much controlled by Mainland China which rivals USA in economic stature. There is worry about how China deals with human rights, but at least the Gay Games can proceed in Hong Kong.

There are some issues, but the games can go forward. Strict covid shutdowns, in Hong Kong's recent past means that the Gay Games also had a backup plan; Guadalajara, Mexico. This year's games are taking place in two venues. Some Hong Kong human rights activists called for the Games to be cancelled saying organizers "have aligned themselves with pro-authoritarian figures responsible for widespread persecution against the people of Hong Kong".

Taiwan is not sending athletes to Hong Kong but to Guadalajara, citing concerns over the the National Security Law that China imposed on Hong Kong in 2020.

China's government did not send officials to the opening ceremony, warning the organizers, in August, that the Games must be conducted in a “lawful, safe and orderly manner”. Regina Ip, convener of the city’s top decision-making body the Executive Council, was the only pro-establishment figure at the opening ceremony, despite calls from anti-LGBTQ lawmakers for her to resign.

"The holding of the Gay Games in Hong Kong is strong testimony to the diversity, inclusion, and unity of our city," Ip said in her welcoming speech. "Equal opportunity and non-discrimination are highly treasured by our government and our people."

Opposition did not dampen the excitement, spectators chanted, cheered and waved before the opening ceremony.

“This is a good idea because especially China is not very fond of the gays. So this is to become visible in China as queer people,” said Gerrit Schulz, 80, a participant from Berlin.

My comment plus excerpts from article in Reuters.

Winning the peace often works better than winning the war.

When the oppressive Soviet Union started to reform, it wasn't so much by military force as by people, within, finding out what folks in freer countries get to have. It was innovations, lifestyle choices, music, diversity, economics, consumer goods, art and so forth that caused people to push for reform.

Even if war isn't able to unseat Russia from it's captured territories, maybe the best strategy is to wait things out. In the long run, the yearnings for reform could come again.

Dust from the Berlin Wall

Dec 30 2022, said to be the 100 year anniversary for founding of the Soviet Union. I have some crumbs from the Berlin Wall.

Back in the 1980s and 90s, even some today, I participated in a network of artists that exchanged grass routes creativity in the mail. This before Facebook and even much of online life.

During the fall of the Berlin Wall, someone sent out this hand made postcard with debris behind plastic. I got one.

Ukraine might be better off not trying to gain back all it's former territory, for now at least.

I fear that Ukraine could end up being bombed back into the stone age loosing their power plants and so forth. Maybe they should be willing to, at least temporarily, give up some of the regions that Russia is occupying, including Crimea.

If the Russians would be willing to have a ceasefire and start negotiating possibly, thinking that they could keep some territory and Crimea it could be one step in the process.

I still side with Ukraine, but there is also the concept of winning the peace, rather than just winning the war. If peace, or at least temporary peace could return, there are other spheres of competition between societies; such as economic competition. Which country does better at innovation? Most likely a country that embraces more human rights and freedoms. Most likely Ukraine.

In the long run, where would the brightest and most innovative people want to live? More likely Ukraine.

In the long run, possibly those lands would be returned to Ukraine, or at least returned to more open society. Even Russia, itself, could, someday, attempt reform as happened after the fall of the Soviet Union. Maybe Putin can be overthrown.

If human rights and minority rights were respected, it really shouldn't matter which side of a national border one resides on. In the long run, the whole idea of nation states could become obsolete.

The European Union is an example of this, though it is currently facing nationalistic headwinds.

It is a big "if" whether the Russians would agree to a cease fire, so this could be a mote point, but I think it's worth considering before Ukraine becomes so damaged by warfare that it becomes unable to function.

As war seems to just bring bloody stalemate in today's Ukraine, maybe Ukraine can win in the sphere of economics and public opinion instead.

I could see maybe Ukraine letting Russia have the areas it has stolen, for now, if it means a pause in the war. Remembering that the long run could be a different story.

In the long run, there is also the competition in fields like economics, quality of life, public opinion and where people most wish to live. More freedom can win in the long run.

People might not wish to live, or be able to flourish, in the areas occupied by Russia, compared to the rest of Ukraine and Europe.

About cities that Russia has bombed, there is the pottery barn rule. You break it, you own it. Hopefully the people who want something better can escape to a new life elsewhere.

Confronting evil head on, or maybe another strategy can work instead?

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy can certainly be admired for his courage and honesty. On the other hand one might question the strategy of confronting evil head on. Unfortunately, it looks like Russia's military has such an advantage over Ukrainian forces that Russia's short term victory seems inevitable.

Another story in the long run, however. The Ukrainians can mount an insurgency making conquest a nightmare for Russia. Civil disobedience is one of many tools that can be used.

Russia's occupation of Afghanistan did not go well for Russia, in the long run. The powerful US military has learned lessons from attempts to "nation build" in Iraq and Afghanistan.

I am remembering the famous saying during a speech, on the aircraft carrier by former US President George W Bush. "Mission accomplished."

Those were famous last words as we have now withdrawn from both Iraq and Afghanistan.

Western economic sanctions can remain in place, though there is the worry that complacency will set in with vigilance lost in the name of easing economic hardship. I would hope for sure the sanctions would remain strong along with aid for Ukraine.

On a personal note, bravery and direct confrontation are not my strong suites, but I do try and find a way to not totally give-in to the "system."

Some people might think I tend to be acquiescent toward authorities, corporations and governments. I fear being a troublemaker, but I do tend to chart a different course than the mainstream.

I feel fortunate to have been able to do this in USA. Other parts of the world have different circumstances, but I offer these ideas for thought.

In all of this, I have to admit I have no idea what the best strategy is. I'm basically just looking for a silver lining. Given the darkness and what seems like likely defeat, in the short run, I keep hoping democracy and human dignity can still find ways to prevail.

It wasn't that long ago there were uprisings in Belarus & Kazakhstan. Now silenced. Maybe that's why Russia feels threatened by Ukraine?

Not that long before the current Russia / Ukraine crisis, there was lots of news; especially on BBC, about human rights protests in Belarus. Belarus's dictator is friendly with Russia's Putin, but people were rising up for weeks. Then it seems like that uprising was crushed and has dropped out of the news.

A similar uprising was put down in Kazakhstan. Both former Soviet Republics. It's said that Putin fears encroachment of the west and restive populations in areas that were given up by the Russians when the Soviet Union dissolved.

What can we do about this? I don't know.

It seems like sending US troops to eastern NATO countries doesn't really help Ukraine since they say they will not enter Ukraine. They are just there to protect former eastern block countries that are now part of NATO; like Poland. They are there to protect the former Soviet Republics that, unlike Ukraine, are in NATO as well; Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.

I doubt Russia would be a threat to those places, at least in the short run. If Russia does invade Ukraine, it will have a lot on the plate. A lot to digest so I doubt it would turn to other places; such as Estonia, for quite some time. Troops may not be the best answer as troops tend to respond to short term things.

As for arming Ukraine, itself, that might be an okay strategy, but it did kind of backfire on the US, over the long run; in Afghanistan. When we backed Afghanistan's militias, after the Soviets invaded Afghanistan in 1979, it was said to push the Soviets out, but later some of those militias turned against us contributing to the 911 attacks.

Economic sanctions are discussed as well, but could be hard to make stick with Europe still quite dependent on oil and natural gas from Russia.

Meanwhile both US and Russian scientists are still cooperating on the International Space Station and in various other research projects including vessels at sea. I note that scientists often cooperate when politicians can't.

I don't have a clear answer, but these are things to think about.

Good news. Moderate Rouhani wins in Iran. Hopefully the Iranian people will have enough patience to keep supporting reform even though prosperity may be a difficult thing to bring about.

Good news. The moderate and more reform minded leader has won in an Iranian election. I hope that Iran can still make progress toward human rights and more quality of life.

There is worry that if Rouhani's promises for a more prosperous economy are not met, it could send the tide of popular opinion another way; such as back to a hardliner. Bringing more prosperity is difficult in any society, including our own here in USA. Meanwhile, many improvements in quality of life don't cost a lot. Prosperity shouldn't be seen as a prerequisite for better quality of life, tho it does help. Hopefully the Iranian people will have enough patience to keep supporting reform even though prosperity may be a difficult thing to bring about. Without reform, prosperity would be even less likely.

Unlikely we can push Russia out of Crimea, but we can push for human rights

It would be hard to get Russia out of Crimea as I think the majority of Crimean s' welcome them. Also it's former Soviet Union territory. Economic sanctions might be good, but to what end? Also it would be hard to get the many countries of Europe, dependent on Russian gas, on board. I mostly favor economic sanctions, but have some reservation as to what outcome we can realistically expect the Russians to do. Seems like they are not likely to let go of Crimea for quite a while at least.

A more likely scenario would be to push for better human rights within Russia which would also mean better treatment of minority groups in Crimea such as the Tartars and Ukrainians. Remember Russia's treatment of gay people as kind of a "canary in the coal mine" foretelling treatment of minority people's within regions under Russian rule.

The west can try to bolster Ukraine's economy and use it as an example of good governance as well as economics. Yesterday, I heard a good interview on Diane Rehm Show about this situation. Former US ambassador to Russia, Jack Matlock actually hinted, in this roundtable discussion, that Ukraine might be better off without trying to hang onto Crimea with it's Russian majority. We could push for better economy in Ukraine. I hear things are going quite well in Poland. Ukraine can be another example, like Poland of how to do things right.

Pushing for human rights is a good idea. The international community has a stake in what goes on within a sovereign country. For instance, neighbors have gotten stuck with floods of refugees from the appalling situation in Syria. I hear that refugees are 1/3 of Jordan's population these days. Jordan, some other countries and the international aid agencies are being overwhelmed.

Pushing for human rights, within sovereign nations, is important, but it seems very hard to convince the Russians to withdraw from Crimea. Maybe in the long run, some sort of international peace keeping deal can be worked out and continued pressure within organizations, such as the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, of which the Russians, Europeans, US and many other countries are members.