Two factors that led to the housing bubble now bursting

Factor 1. Low interest rates, irresponsible lending practices that made it look like more money was available for home purchasing than the regular economy of jobs, products and services could support.

Factor 2. Basic population growth versus supply of land. Growth versus protecting the environment. Supply and demand of build able lots is an aspect of this issue.

Both factors caused home values and prices to go beyond what our economy can sustain.

When people have to use more than 1/3rd of their income just to pay the rent, or mortgage, watch out. We've got economic problems.

Factor 1, the banking issue is a morass. Many are writing about it so my thoughts are just more for the pile. Here's my two bits.

If the bailout happens, I think the Federal Reserve will eventually be forced into printing lots of money to avoid default on the Federal debt. This will likely lead to strong inflation in which the economy of wages, goods and services will inflate and eventually catch up with high housing costs. Eventually a balance of sorts might be restored to the economy. Yes, inflation could bring us back into balance. Higher wages for workers, but also higher prices for lots of things outside the housing sector.

One of the problems of the past few years has been inflation in certain sectors of the economy, such as health care and housing, which have outpaced wages and other sectors of the economy. Remember, there are some sectors of the economy where prices have even been dropping. Think digital cameras.

Now think journalism. Professions such as journalism are now being largely turned over to things like "crowd sourcing."

Think "outsourcing" also.

As for factor 2, demand and supply of build able lots versus population growth, there are many solutions here which I have written about in past blog entries.

Reducing Population growth for instance. Also we need to increase the density of zoning, allowing more mixed income neighborhoods and other things to improve planning. We need to better accommodate the population that's here now and the projected population growth that's already in the pipeline.

Basically, we need planning and lifestyles for a more sustainable society.

I just got back from the future

Something like the future we could have if we had the political will. Vancouver public transit Skytrain gliding over the traffic of surface streets. Kind of reminds me of 1960s images from "city of the future" with monorails snaking past mushroom shaped buildings.

I'm now back from my bicycle tour around to interesting things in this greater Northwest Washington, lower BC region. Parked my bike in a motel and took the Skytrain a few times.

I've thought of getting a shirt to wear when I'm bicycling that says, "my other vehicle is the Skytrain." Then folks might think I'm Canadian. I just live close to our peaceful border. Really, here in USA, we could do it also.

If you really want a great video showing how it works with some behind the scenes stuff, check out This great video I just discovered from MetroVancouver.

I also rode some regular buses and saw GPS at work. A sign at the front of the bus tells what street the bus is crossing and which stop is coming next. This info can likely be sent to cellphones so folks waiting at bus stops can learn where the bus they are waiting for is.

Global positioning technology. Amazing.

Gruesome economic cartoon idea

As the elderly post war baby boomer is hobbling off to the nursing home, Chinese debt masters close nursing home demanding repayment of national debt.

Sort of like future USA crippled and old will not be in any position to pay back all this debt. Young folks might rebel and just refuse to.

During the Reagan years, people said the debt was so bad then that kids would be saddled with huge debt. Now those kids are adults and they aren't having to pay off the debt. Maybe it can just keep being pushed into the future till it melts away in some kind of magical paradigm shift.

Hoard your health instead of food. Before we starve medical care may run out first

Quite a few people are saying, "hoard food now, the financial meltdown is coming."

Well, I don't think it's quite that dire. Food is still pretty affordable and available for most people here in USA. Hoarding one's health, if you've still got it, is more to the point.

Health care is really expensive. Will we be able to pay for health care in the future? Will we be able to pay, especially with these mounting federal deficits?

The prospect for ever paying down the debt gets lower as we head into the future and postwar baby boom generation ages. Governments will just have to keep spending more and more for health care, social security and so forth. Wonder if it can be done?

Hang onto your health, you may need it. Ride your bike. It's likely to be more imperative than hoarding cans of food.

If your health is already gone, I hope for the best. Maybe they'll (or we'll) figure a way out of this "over consuming, financial instability, global warming, economic obesity" morass eventually.

What happens when the whole economy does debt consolidation?

These bad private debts are now being consolidated into one place; the federal debt. It's like paying off a bunch of credit cards with one super loan from some credit card counseling agency. Debt consolidation.

When the federal government bails out all these banks, insurance companies, bad home loans and so forth, people say the taxpayers are picking up the tab. Actually the tab is being added to the federal deficit, rather than being picked up by taxpayers. Unless taxes increase, or increased economic activity leads to growing revenue collection, new spending and risk just gets added to the federal debt. Taxpayers are not likely to see it in next year's taxes, for instance.

What happens when this is all added to the debt? Will that debt ever need to be paid back?

Good questions.

Except for some brief periods when there was a slight federal surplus, we never even start paying off that debt.

We had federal budget surpluses one year under the Johnson administration during the 1960s, if I remember correctly, and a few years under the Clinton administration.

Both Johnson and Clinton were Democrats in the White house.

Most years, including some years that Democrats and all years that Republicans were in the White House, during my lifetime, the debt keeps piling higher.

When Clinton ran a surplus and paid down a tiny fraction of the accumulated debt, I thought, "this is a rare and fragile situation." It didn't last long.

Now, consolidating so much of this private debt under the "one roof" of federal debt is uncharted territory. The deficit is likely to balloon even faster.

What happens when people realize that it may never be paid back?

Who knows.

Now might be a good time to try and not think about money and material wealth too much. There are other aspects to life than our culture's obsession with material wealth.

About now, right before it looks like we're falling over the precipice, Garrison Keillor from A Prairie Home Companion might transition us to "it's time for some Beebop Areebop A Rhubarb Pie." Or maybe it's catsup. Yes, catsup comes to the rescue with it's mellowing agents.

One thing politicians are not likely to say about the housing bubble

We've heard a lot about irresponsible bankers making fortunes running their companies into the ground.

It's true, but there's also a lot of ordinary people who have made out well from rising real estate prices in recent years. School teachers, police officers, factory workers. If you bought your house when the buying was good and sold after hefty appreciation, you made out like bandits.

Politicians wouldn't implicate ordinary folks since they want their votes and there are a lot more ordinary folks than Wall Street brokers.

Selling a house at the right time has met a lot of early retirements, trips abroad, SUVs, furnishings, fine wines and meals, you name it. Life has been pretty lucrative for a large chunk of middle income Americans.

I don't have the figures, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was a good 25 percent of the population living high on the hog. On my bike tours, I notice the big homes, the nice yards, the businesses that cater to luxuries from salons for your pouch to fine coffees.

Even seemingly ordinary people need to consider how sustainable the lifestyles that folks take for granted are.

While many on the good side of the real estate boom have done well, sold at the right time, retired early and so forth. Others have not done so well.

As the escalator of living went up for many, another huge chunk of our general population found things increasingly difficult. Trying to find a job that paid enough to get into that first home, having health insurance, making ends meet. Possibly this group of have-nots is another 25 percent of the population.

Now it looks like enough people are at the bottom, having trouble getting onto the escalator that the whole thing is jamming up. Some banks tried to make it look easier for these marginal people with no money down offers and so forth. These banks are now finding a lot of folks defaulting.

I still hear radio ads for mortgage stuff. Often the ads start with the phrase "homeowners." Being a renter, I tune out. Figure it doesn't apply to me.

Then there's those "lucky" homeowners who took too much cash out of their perceived fortunes. Home equity loans for joys, but also the things life throws at you. Medical expenses and our nation's lack of a good safety net. Divorce comes up, just when you think you've had it made and the house is paid off. Life has it's twists and turns.

More folks get stuck at the bottom of the escalator and eventually the whole thing grinds to a halt.

Summer 2008 only comes once

Taking Blackball Ferry from Port Angeles, WA. to Victoria, BC.


Decided to head back toward central city of Vancouver for one more sightseeing day.

Picture taken at downtown public library.

My ride in from Abbotsford was good along shoulder of Fraser Highway. Better than going east on north side of Fraser River where there was construction and so forth. North side gets better farther east past Mission, as I remember from an earlier trip.

South side of river is OK as much of the traffic "rat race" can use Trans Canada Highway rather than Fraser Highway.

More highway choices on south side of river.

I was thinking of coming back to Bellingham a day early, but missed my turn south to the border at Aldergrove. Also thought one more day in Canada would be fun. Motel in Surrey and Skytrain back to downtown Vancouver.

I had another dream that encouraged me to continue my trip. Dream was about stopping into my place of work and discovering I was needed back at work earlier than expected. Our vacation fill-in help must have miss read the calendar in my dream. They left earlier than planned.

While my boss was trying to explain this to me, several other people were talking to him all at once. He was also trying to serve whole wheat bread from a vendor's cart in the lobby. Doing this while running all over the building troubleshooting maintenance things. People were lining up at the cart waiting for their bread while he was needed upstairs to fix pluming problems. His skin looked mighty wrinkled.

I'm glad that was just a dream and when I do go back to work, it shouldn't be that hectic; hopefully.

Is the ownership society sustainable?

As more financial institutions falter, here is a factor to keep in mind.

I keep hearing that the median wage is not enough to qualify for a mortgage to buy the median priced house. That's true in so many regions.

When people can't afford home ownership and at the same time home ownership is being held up as a holy grail of life, "ownership society," there is a disconnect.

In trying to afford homes via fancy financing from unregulated banks, rather than wages and house values in better balance, we get the default situation being faced today.

We need less emphasis on home ownership as the holy grail of living, or we will need to inflate the rest of the economy to catch everything from wages to candy bars up with home values.

$10 candy bars?

Either people stretch too far and buy, or have to give up that dream.

What we need is a more sustainable dream than buying over our means.

Less expensive housing, like mobile home courts for instance, Smaller houses and more apartment living may be in the future.

Is it a sacrifice, or maybe just making things more convenient? Maybe it's better.

My bike touring version of "American Dream" is now visiting Canada. Might not be that sustainable either. Exploring around Vancouver has meant some motel stays for me. More expensive than camping.

Now I am out east of Vancouver in the sprawl around Abbotsford. Yes, Canada has sprawl too, but maybe not as much as Washington State.

Single family homes all spread out. Narrow rural roads crammed with traffic. I'm confined to bigger highways that have shoulder, but "gritty" along side all those noisy dusty trucks. Not a lot to see except mountains and farms in the distance.

Time to head back. The camping is still too far out and the riding is a bit boring. Heading back into beautiful central city Vancouver would be better scenery, but more motel stays. I have to think about what's sustainable for my bank account also.

The city is pretty, but more of the outskirts need to be like the city. The city is rare, making it more expensive. People pay a high price for convenience, yet most of the sprawl around large cities doesn't build for convenience. Convenience needs to be more common and affordable. They should build the outlying areas with more density and smaller homes. A more sustainable version of of both the American and Canadian dreams.

Out here in the sprawl, it's still too urban for camping, but still too rural for convenience. Motels near attractions like Midas Muffler shop. Wow. The worst of both city and country?

Views from bike path on Alex Fraser Bridge near Vancouver, BC

View east from the bridge.

Back from the beach

Where others have come back from the beach and gutted fish, I've used Internet WIFI and dreamed about the Hadron Collider. More and more resorts are getting WIFI now.

This Asus PC has worked well and has been small enough for my bike pannier.

I'm using Linux.

Click on image to enlarge and see Google front page celebration of Hadron. Also see signs about proper etiquette for cleaning fish in the campground.


This bicycle trip has taken me to Pacific Ocean at Rialto Beach. Today is the much looked forward to start up Hadron collider in Europe. Exploring deeper into the nature of matter and the universe.

In 1999, I was passing through Wenatchee, WA. when the Chandra X-Ray satellite was launched.

2003 saw Spitzer Infrared Observatory launch while I was biking through Marin County, CA.

Exploration.

Last night, around the time of Hadron start up, I dreamed the collider was, for some reason, in Hope, BC. Now there is a big collider at UBC Campus in Vancouver, BC, but the Hadron isn't in the mountains around Hope. It's in Europe under parts of France and Switzerland.

In the dream, I met up with a bunch of other cyclists on the road. I kept talking about the Hadron so the cyclists I just met said, "we're close, let's all go there."

We went down the road and turned off to Hadron, near Hope, BC.

Remember, this is a dream.

Entering a building, there was a big reception lobby filled with tourists. Someone came out from a back office and started explaining things. Then he began berating us for ruining his busy day. He said he felt obligated to show us around.

We wondered what that was about as lobby was full of tourists who just dropped by. Remember, this is only a dream.

So we went outside and the nice day turned to a heavy rain. So heavy that we could see cars hydroplaning on the road and throwing up muddy water on the shoulder. Our stuff was drenched so we had to take refuge inside the lobby again to wait out the rain squall.

About then I woke up. Glad it was just a somewhat unpleasant dream.

Weather has been great on this trip. Sunny except for some overcast on the beach.

I am excitedly awaiting news of new discoveries at Hadron over the next years and no it's not in Hope, BC. where my dream took place. I'm not there either. Nothing wrong with Hope. I do plan to go back to Bellingham via Victoria and Vancouver, BC.

In 1989, I biked to Vancouver and went to an open house at the TRIUMF Particle Physics Lab. It was very interesting and the people were great. Not like my dream.

Along Olympic Discovery Trail

Old railroad bridges around Sequim, WA. Having a great time riding out toward Crescent Lake and possibly the Pacific. Then headed back to Bellingham later in the week via Victoria, BC and the Blackball Ferry from Port Angeles. Great sunny weather so far. Nice bicycling on these trails and roads.

Electric Transit

Windmill painted on side of Max Train as I passed by in another Max Train.

One of the goals of this summers travels was riding Portland's Max Train. Staying in a motel room in Portland, OR. I just took the Max out to Beaverton and back.

A driver ask, "where's your umbrella?" Portland was experiencing a shower. I said, "The train is my umbrella."


Sitting a short while in Beaverton waiting to pick up a new load of passengers. I just stayed on the train and headed back downtown.

The means of transit was the destination.

Stay tuned for more about this summer's travels via bicycle, train and so forth.

Will children have to pay back the debt?

When Regan was president, the federal debt grew to huge proportions. People kept saying, "our kids will be saddled with a huge debt."

Well now, a lot of those kids are adults. Kids of the Regan era are now grownups.

Are they having to pay back the debt?

Doesn't look like it. Debt is still growing.

This makes me suspicious. Will the debt ever need to be repaid?

Seems like people always say the children will have to pay it, but when those children grow up, the debt just keeps growing.

Wonder if it will ever need to be re payed?

Debt is the path of least resistance for the Federal Government since either raising taxes or cutting the budget causes an outrage.

People say, "don't raise my taxes," but they also say, "don't cut veteran's benefits," for instance.

Going into debt seems to be the path of least resistance. Seems like there's no consequences to running the federal deficit.

People have said that interest rates rise when the federal government eats up capital with deficit spending. I'm suspicious again. During GW Bush's big deficits, interest rates have been low. So low that the real estate bubble resulted.

Maybe they never have to pay off the debt. It doesn't even raise interest rates.

Just get the federal Reserve to print money; I guess. Only consequence is inflation from more dollars in circulation.

Interesting to note that until just this last year, inflation seemed to be only rampant in a few sectors.

Real estate values and health care, for instance.

In other sectors, inflation has been moderate. Other sectors such as food and consumer goods.

That's been up until this past year. Now things are changing again as energy costs rise.

* I'm still on my summer trips. This was posted from WIFI in a Portland, Oregon hotel room. Stay tuned for more trip details and photos. Hello from Oregon on this Labor Day weekend.

A trip through the mainland to the ferry dock could be the best part of biking Orcas Island

Just got back from the second of my small bike trips. Orcas Island via Anacortes and Skagit Valley.

Most of the charm was getting there on some quiet roads through Edison and Bayview State Park. Above picture taken from Padilla Bay bike trail has everything from a blue heron to the Anacortes Refinery.

The Journey is really the destination.


Several bakeries in tiny Edison offered nice smells and treats.


Old boats just sitting in the tiny Samish River.

More pictures below.

Pedaling through Skagit was nicer than the "destination" Orcas Island, itself. Roads on the island are kind of narrow and busier. I've noticed this, when I go to the Island. Yes, San Juan Islands are considered a bicycle destination, but really, some of the mainland is better.

Many bicyclists go to Lopez, rather than Orcas. It's flatter and more rural, but there doesn't seem to be many attractions there. Just riding around, which I do all the time anyway.

Orcas is OK; just a bit hectic.

One of my favorite attractions has been the Doe Bay Resort, on Orcas, with it's clothing optional hot tubs.

Haven't been there for a while, but paid a visit. Over the years, Doe Bay has gradually evolved to a bit tidier, but more expensive place. The clientele seems to have changed at the tubs, but it's still the home of friendly conversation. I used to enjoy the young hippie kind of energy that was there. Now that it's gotten more expensive, it seems to be drawing an older and more financially established crowd. One might be more apt to run into brokers than traveling folks right out of college. Still, I had a good time, but it's not what it was in years past. Tubs are lined with a more comfortable surface that looks like slate. The deck is a lot wider and more comfortable and most of the people are a bit wider as well.

Coming back on the ferry, one gets a better view of Mount Baker (if it isn't cloudy) than from Bellingham. At least with a zoom lens.


Of course, I don't want to attract too many people, and cars, with images of Mount Baker like you'd find in coffee table books. Riding past the oil refineries of Anacortes also offered some interesting images.

Ice caves at Big Four

I'm standing near this natural air conditioner.

Melting snow.

The Big Four Ice Caves is basically a pile of snow and ice that falls down from Big Four Mountain during colder months. At this lower elevation, the snow accumulation melts forming lots of little caves.

I just stood near the mouth of one. It's not safe to go in, unless you want chunks to fall on your head. Possibly big chunks. Killer chunks.

It's a nice two day bike trip from Bellingham. I'm taking several short trips in this area for my vacation. Bicycle trips, as usual for me.

People walk on the snow, but it's considered dangerous also. Could fall in a cave.

Water drops down into top of snow pile and disappears.

What happens to the water?

It must soak into gravel and reemerge as springs farther down the trail.

Looks like something disturbed the forest and smashed the walkway.

Detour.

Big Four is located around 30 miles east of Granite Falls on the Mountain Loop Highway.

Throwing down the bronze

I wanted the gold said Ara Abrahamiam as he threw down the bronze medal awarded during 2008 Olympics in Beijing. 2nd best, 3rd best, not enough. The bar, and expectations have gotten so high.

That's the problem with high stakes sports. Probably the rest of us are all losers since most wouldn't even qualify for the Olympics.

We're "over the hill." If you don't start training insanely at age 10, being in the Olympics is probably a pipe dream.

That would make a good book title.

"Over The Hill at Ten."

It's time to slow down a bit and enjoy the often overlooked pleasures of life.

Someone told me that Michael Phelps (US swimmer) started training at age 7. Did he have time for a childhood?

That someone also said he sure has a sexy body. I hadn't noticed yet. I don't have a TV. I do notice lots of sexy bodies around town. Just in the supermarket, parks, post office line. This is a college town.

People say that watching pornography is like unrequited love. Often overweight older men watching young studs.

That's OK if watching the Olympics is OK.

Sitting in front of the media, with no hope to actually participate.

What ever floats you're boat.

At the risk of being "second rate," I'll go out and ride my bike. No medals expected, but there might be some cute college studs to swim among out at the lake.

Does vacation have to prove or accomplish something?

And it's tempting to thumb my nose at news headlines saying Americans are taking shorter trips due to gas prices. Since I bicycle, my trip could be as long as ever. Still, I'm thinking of staying closer to home also. There is so much in this area, with-in maybe a 300 mile radius, that I normally don't have time to see.

Photo shows cool bike trail along Padden Creek in Bellingham. Old sandstone remnants of water system. Many don't discover these gems when they just fly over things or stick to the freeway.

For longer trips, I usually take the train back home from anyway. Amtrak prices have probably gone up, but not too bad. Main problem, I've run out of places that interest me with easy train connections back home.

How many times should I go down California Coast? So far, this lifetime, 5 times.

Biking east across USA takes at least 2 months. I usually only get around 5 weeks. Maybe some year, I'll add more leave of absence to vacation. 5 weeks might get me just past North Dakota and I'd have to take the train back just before the interesting part of the eastern states.

How many times should I visit Eastern Washington?

Some people suggest Colorado, but taking the train there means going to California first. Train doesn't do the diagonal.

Maybe the Amtrak ThruWay bus does.

There's always flying. People say it's an ordeal. My last flight was early 1980s, well before 911. Such a small plane that every seat was a window seat.

It was fun. The view, fantastic, but short lived.

Maybe flying is still OK. Shipping my bike and all of that. Takes some logistics. I'm supposed to be on vacation.

There's a lot of smaller trips around here to interesting cities, hot tubs, bike trails around places like Vancouver, BC, Seattle, Portland, Oregon, San Juan Islands, Olympic Peninsula. May even take train as far as Eugene. Also I plan to pass through Bellingham a few times and then head out again. Sleep in my own bed, rather than being away for several weeks solid.

Yesterday, I watched them tear down an old building to make way for mixed income housing. The old Walton Beverage Warehouse.

Some people are sad to see it go. Relic of an era when buildings weren't trying to be pretty.

I stopped and watched for quite a while. Also ate some blackberries that were growing through the fence. Glad I wasn't too busy. An interesting "happening" to stumble upon.

Wade King Elementary school looks like it's cutting it's way into the forest

From Yew Street Road, it looks like the new Wade King Elementary is pushing it's way into the mountains. New schools accommodating our growing city.

People can eat longer than they can drive cheap, there's still oil in the Bakken Shale. It's just a bit more expensive

If housing and other things can be real expensive, so can energy.

Biking through North Dakota in 1998, I passed quite a few oil wells in the hay fields.

My 1991 trip.

While offshore drilling and Alaska's Anwar are being debated, quite a few people don't even think about North Dakota. Where's that? Who's ever heard of Williston or Lake Sakakawea?

I hear there's an oil boom going on in that area. Even this article, from 2 years ago, explains things.

Supposedly, there could be lots of oil there. Some other articles have even suggested oil comparable to the reserves of Saudi Arabia. It's just more expensive to extract, but at over $100 per barrel it might be doable.

New technology, such as sideways drilling into the Bakken Shale.

Expensive.

It isn't strip mining. Just letting it drip out, I guess.

Reassuring news, in some ways.

At least we aren't likely to starve. There's still oil for agriculture and trucking. It just gets expensive. We can still eat.

What's hit harder than eating is driving; especially long distance commuting.

In the cost of food, "energy" is just one of several expense items. In driving, it's "the elephant in the room."

With shorter commutes, even driving might still be affordable.

I've never driven though. Bicycling really shines these days.

Living in town helps. I hope living in town remains affordable. Pretty soon, a lot more people may want to move to town.

I do bike long distances, but it takes time. My lifestyle in the slow lane. An "alternative lifestyle."

In 1998, I biked through Williston, ND. and had lunch at Lake Sakakawea. Out in the grasslands. I was on my way from Bellingham, Washington to the Great Lakes. Took 2 months and I came back on Amtrak.

The world was a bit different then. Oil prices were really low. Low compared to other things in our economy. China was still a big consumer, but less of a consumer than it is now.

1 billion 3 hundred million people makes a difference.

In the late 1990s, Asian stock markets tumbled. Those economies slowed down and oil demand dropped. This freed up lots of oil for the West.

Energy was cheap and much of America was booming. Not the North Dakota oil country, however. It felt kind of quiet, like a back water.

Meditative however.

Miles of hay fields. Not a lot of human excitement.

Don't need to pay $400 for some Buddhist "quiet the soul" workshop. Just bike across miles of hay fields.

Meanwhile other parts of USA were almost exploding. Real estate was going up out of sight. The dot com bubble was growing.

Places like Santa Cruz, California were getting expensive. Rents and house values were skyrocketing. Pushing poor working souls farther out into the boonies.

Longer commutes, but gas was cheap.

"Drive till you qualify."

Remember?

Energy complacency.

Of course Americans didn't really address the energy issue back then. It was "back burner."

Most of us somehow survived spiraling health care and housing costs.

Now it's energy's turn.

I'm not necessarily for or against drilling. I just keep biking. People have to do what they have to do.

Now the news is full of our presidential candidates who have stances that evolve with time.

That's OK.

Both McCain and Obama starting to see the need for some offshore drilling.

North Dakota also, I guess.

Obama talks about the need to transition into cleaner energy sources. Transition toward more renewable energy. Solar power. Wind.

Here's even a picture of a wind mill somewhere in North Dakota, but wind power is a different kind of windmill.

Campaign strategies must now be saying, "oil is still needed to transition us to better futures."

For the long view, McCain is a big advocate of "non greenhouse gas emitting" nuclear power.

I'm still for Obama, but "nuclear" might be needed as well.

Also windmills, solar panels, my bicycling lifestyle and a lot of other things.

Other parts of the economy have boomed and gotten pricey. Now it's energy's turn.

You say, what about oil company profits?

Well, maybe they'll invest them in a variety of energy sources. Sideways drilling. Even solar power. Can get expensive.

If houses can be so expensive in places like Santa Cruz, CA., I guess energy costs something also.

Old signs painted on side of building

Side of restored Hotel Laube on State St. in Bellingham. Building now used for affordable housing. View from alley between State and Forest. Chew Star Tobacco, notice, Coca Cola must have been painted later.

Biked to political discussion

July 23 I biked to a house near the corner of Noon and Smith Roads to a political discussion in someone's living room. Mount Baker was out and the air felt fresh.

Event was an LGBT (lesbian, gay bisexual, trans gender) gathering to meet Mark Flanders who's running for Washington State Legislature in the 42nd district. Mark seems like a really good candidate who is willing to discuss the issues and listen to ideas of people from many walks in life. Kelli Linville was at the discussion also.

There didn't happen to be a huge turnout, but enough. More time to explore topics in depth. Discussion went way beyond just so called LGBT issues to many things. Population growth, planning, peak oil, visioning what Whatcom County will look like in 50 years.

I don't even live in the 42nd district. I live near the line between 42nd and 40th, but it was well worth going out for an interesting discussion. Also a nice bike ride.

Exercise for both the mind and body.

A little bit more peaceful

In the past few months, I have noticed slightly less car traffic and a bit less noise. A few more bicycles. Higher gas prices, a blessing in disguise.

My friend Whoretense pictured in Faces of Bellingham

At Bellingham GLBTQ Pride Parade 2008. Pictured in Faces Of Bellingham. Turned out great that day of the parade.

Ignition Fire Troop that preformed at festival.


52 sec.

Why there aren't a lot of foreclosures around me. My perception

Seems like there's not very many "working first time home buyers" in Bellingham. Working people are more likely to be renters.

As for the homeowners, a large percentage may not even owe mortgages. Sometimes they payed for their house by just getting out the checkbook and writing a check. $400,000. Just write a check. They sold their house someplace else. In some cases, they inherited the money.

Yes, there's a disconnect between working people and the housing market. It's especially visible here.

Housing market seems like an escalator without the beginning rungs. If you got on it a long time ago when the lower rungs were there, you rode up with inflation. Now it seems like the lower rungs are out of reach for most working people.

Seems like there aren't many first time working home buyers in this area. Those are the ones likely to be on the precarious edge of foreclosure.

In some other areas of USA, the percentage of working home buyers seems higher.

Bellingham is often said to offer nothing much in the way of "career jobs." Nothing much outside of educational institutions who can't employ all their own graduates.

Local people are often students or retired.

Working people tend to be in the low wage service economy and don't try to buy, unless they've already been on that escalator for quite a while.

Ironically, this might mean less of a foreclosure problem.

Living can be fun anyway as money isn't everything.

Watch skate borders roll down Holly Street.

Then again, there can be foreclosure from people borrowing on their home equity. Trying to live off the vast amount of money they thought they had from selling a house. They're trying to start a business, or something. After that money runs out and the business doesn't really get off the ground, watch out. Trouble.

Are there more entrepreneurial business dreams in Bellingham than there are paying customers?

Should the vast supply of local massage therapists just give each other massages and not worry about money?

Yes, there is a disconnect between home values and wages. It's particularly evident here.

Now, thinking about the bigger picture, say the federal government decides to do big bailouts of various banks and bailout home buyers on the precarious edge.

I would guess, mass inflation would result.

Maybe it's better to just let home values fall till workers can afford to enter the housing market. Sure, a lot of folks are being shaken out of the market, but home prices have been too high. Many of these people just "got in" on too much optimism and deceptive lending practices from banks.

To do the bailout, government would have to borrow like mad. Borrow even more than it's borrowing now and it's like mad now.

Does that mean Federal Reserve just prints up the money?

Where does all that money come from? It seems that the government never has problems finding money to borrow.

Often I'm left scratching my head when I ponder the economy. Maybe the printing presses at the Federal Reserve just roll.

That means lots of dollars in circulation.

Inflation?

I assume eventually wages go up with inflation.

Imagine; bottom of the wage range being $35 per hour.

It's just the rest of the economy catching up with astronomical home values.

A candy bar for $10?

Then working people who are first time home buyers could afford houses again.

Either houses have to drop in value, or wages have to go way up for this large segment of our population to afford buying.

The home value escalator gets it's bottom rungs again? Economy back in balance? If the economy is ever in balance.

It's just money. It's just numbers.

Eventually we'll just retire the penny. Retire the nickle too. Make dimes the bottom rung. They're smallest in actual size anyway.

Just put another zero left of the decimal point and every thing's cool.

Real estate inflation can cause traffic when land for road building costs more

I keep hearing ads on radio from a group called Changepac in Olympia. Blaming Governor Gregoire for traffic remaining bad while gas taxes have gone up. They ask, "where is the money going?"

Well, costs of road building keeps going up. Land is now so expensive (look at the median price of a single family home in King County), it must cost a fortune to add more lanes to freeways.

Single occupancy automobile travel takes a lot of space.

No, I don't think you can blame the governor for that.

Population keeps growing, land, concrete, steel, asphalt costs keep going up. You get the idea.

There are many projects under construction or recently completed anyway, so I hear. For instance the new Tacoma Narrows Bridge.

Yes, it is time for a change, but not a change in the governor. Public transit can use the expensive space we have more effectively.

It's people that are the problem. Too many people. People want to have their cake and eat it too. Low taxes, but still expect top dollar when a new highway project condemns one's home.

Also people who expect everything to work, like it sort of did back in the 1950s.

Who's to blame?

Everyone.

I hear that when I-5 was built through Seattle, the city actually lost population from all the houses they bulldozed down in it's path. Back then, you could buy up houses for less.

When land was cheap, maybe you could "build your way out of congestion." Now it's more difficult.

That's where the money is going.

I doubt changing the governor would make much difference.

Pride Parade and Festival was great

1 min.

A friend across USA wanted to see me dancing, so I set my camera on a table at Rumor's Cabaret and pushed the button. This was during Bellingham Pride Festival 2008 before the bigger crowds came in to the dance floor. It was a fun day.

Before Pride, I was one of 3 people interviewed on KGMI Radio's PM Bellingham show. The interview was about 1/2 hour. Others were Betty Desire, of course, and Nick Milhoan from Whatcom PFLAG.

Cyclists yield to nudists, doctored sign

Someone must have doctored this sign that I saw along a bike path near the False Creek area as I was biking into Vancouver last weekend. I don't even think there's a nude beach in that area. Must be a story behind this, but who knows.

More images from my bike ride / Skytrain trip to Vancouver in future posts.

Survivalist food store, could be a sitting duck. Mobility might be a better survival skill

Since seventh grade, I've heard about the pending doom of civilization. Stock market volatility, gas prices rising, planets aligning.

40 years ago, a seventh grade classmate was learning edible plants in preparation for his escape to the forest.

Problem is, if everyone gets that idea, the forests will be trampled by all the new "survivalist campers." Edible plants will have been eaten.

Fast forward 40 years. Another friend suggests growing a garden and storing food. Storing lots of food.

Then he says, "keep it safe from the rats and the thieves."

Yes, the thieves. If civilization breaks down, thieves could be everywhere.

But I say, a "fortress food store" could be "sitting duck."

Here's another strategy for survival.

Mobility.

Yes, mobility and agility.

Being able to move at moment's notice. I don't have much space to store food in my rented room, but I've got well over 100 supermarkets and restaurants within an easy bike ride, or even walk from my home.

Survival might mean being agile and traveling to the places where fragments of civilization still reside. Some supermarket with auxiliary power, for instance. This could be running as a community food bank.

I don't think civilization is likely to totally crumble in my lifetime. It's been on the verge of that since at least my childhood. Hasn't happened yet.

"Community" does offer a lot of redundancy, diversity, resiliency and flexibility.

It's kind of like the insurance company model. Spread and diversify risk.

With hundreds of supermarkets and eateries close by, there's a lot of backup. Some will close, but others will figure something out.

Thieves and rats cold hit some food stores while others remain available. If you are relying on just your own basement pantry for survival, wouldn't you know, that's bound to be the one destroyed.

There are hundreds of different kinds of businesses within nearly a stone's throw of my place. Mobility, diversity and adaptability can be the key to survival if, as they say, "the shit ever hits the fan."

A future of fortified homes with shotguns and people living off canned goods in the basement might not be worth living for anyway. Maybe it would be exciting and cozy for a few days, like being snowed in, but that would get boring after while.

Flexibility, and getting around by bicycle, without much to carry; that's a survival skill; especially in this age of rising gas prices.

I've always biked, never driven my whole life.

For us aging "post war baby boomers," food isn't really the big worry. The worry is more likely to be health care.

Yes, health care.

If civilization ever does crumble, it will be just in time for us to need nursing home care and stuff like that.

Wouldn't you know, the timing is perfect. Like bread always falling with the butter side down. A lot of us are retiring just in time for Medicare to go bankrupt. That is, of course, unless they fix it. Maybe I should say "we fix it."

I'm confident that innovations can fix things. Even fix things like the "Rube Goldberg duct tape and bailing wire" health care system of the US.

Meanwhile, bicycling can postpone those health issues, for a while at least.

So far, everyone eventually passes from this life anyway.

Fires in California and elsewhere

I don't normally blame all the odd weather on global warming. Weather varies a lot anyway while global warming is a long term trend.

Still, I keep reading that US southwest is predicted to get dryer in most models related to global warming. Seems like more often than not, they're talking drier than normal down there.

Up here as well, but maybe not as pronounced.

Drier weather.

Also, so many people moving out into forested areas.

Population growth / people trying to escape cities.

More houses in fire's path. Also more things to start fires, like yard waste burning and getting out of control.

Living in a concrete jungle, such as the "city" has some advantages. Concrete isn't as flammable.

Generation of lost opportunity?

Article on Live Science indicates happiness is gradually on the increase worldwide, but figures for USA could be brought down by post war baby boomers.

Baby boomers are generally more miserable than other generations, but the difference may be so slight that it's not worth noting. A survey released June 25 from Pew Research Center shows boomers rate their lives on a scale of 1 to 10 at a 6.2. People over 62 years of age averaged out at 6.7 while the 18 to 41 age group rated 6.5.

6.2 for the boomers (age 44 to 62) is the lowest value in this satisfaction measure, but it could be an insignificant finding, or close to the margin of statistical error.

Still, it looks like the whole world is getting slightly happier. That counters many folks who think things are getting rougher. Maybe the world isn't "all going to hell in a hand basket."

Excerpting from article:

"It's a surprising finding," said University of Michigan political scientist Ronald Inglehart, who headed up the survey. "It's widely believed that it's almost impossible to raise an entire country's happiness level."

Denmark is the happiest nation and Zimbabwe the most glum, he found.

The United States ranks 16th.

The results of the survey, going back an average of 17 years in 52 countries and involving 350,000 people, will be published in the July 2008 issue of the journal Perspectives on Psychological Science. Researchers have asked the same two questions over the years: "Taking all things together, would you say you are very happy, rather happy, not very happy, not at all happy?" And, "All things considered, how satisfied are you with your life as a whole these days?"

A Happiness Index created from the answers rose in 40 countries between 1981 and 2007, and it fell in the other 12.

Scientists had thought happiness is stable over time when looking at entire societies." "Most previous research suggests that people and nations are stuck on a 'hedonic treadmill,'" Inglehart said. "The belief has been that no matter what happens or what we do, basic happiness levels are stable and don't really change."

So Inglehart's team was surprised that happiness "rose substantially." They speculate reasons for the sunny outlooks include societal shifts in recent decades: Low-income countries such as India and China have experienced unprecedented rates of economic growth; dozens of medium-income countries have democratized; and there has been a sharp rise of gender equality and tolerance of ethnic minorities and gays and lesbians in developed societies.

Previous research has found that happiness is partly inherited and that money doesn't buy much of it.

Yet the new survey finds people of rich countries tend to be happier than those of poor countries. And controlling for economic factors, certain types of societies are much happier than others.

"The results clearly show that the happiest societies are those that allow people the freedom to choose how to live their lives," Inglehart said.

A survey released last week found one reason America doesn't top the list: Baby Boomers are generally miserable compared to other generations.

So, I wonder what's wrong with us baby boomers?

Volumes of research and speculation must be out there, but here's my take.

Lost opportunity.

A big part of the baby boom generation started making news with promises for counter-culture. Being less materialistic, freer love, peace, environmentalism.

Well, it kind of sold out. Some of that idealism died in drugs and alcoholism. Other trends succumbed to yuppyism and the rising cost of living.

Still there is some of what once was called Aquarian conspiracy that's been integrated into mainstream society.

I even remember a book sometime back in the 1980s about Aquarian Conspiracy.

Things have stepped forward on stuff like gay rights and green technology, but expectations are high. Expectations often remain way out ahead of social realities. When that's the case, it seems like fertile ground for disappointment.

Still, the difference between 6.2 and even 6.7 rating for happiness isn't a giant chasm. It looks like post war is almost as happy as other generations.

We can hang in there as the world slowly improves. That is if greed and overpopulation doesn't destroy it first.

In my next life, after I'm reincarnated in some form, they will have finished that bicycle trail all the way from Bellingham to Mount Baker. It will be more peaceful than the traffic world of Mount Baker Highway. Still, Mount Baker Highway is tolerable for the most part. It's probably an improvement over being thrown from one's horse after she stumbled in a rut on some wagon road.