In some ways, it's easier for an authoritarian system, like in Mainland China, to make transformative changes to deal with climate change. For instance China has an easier time building high speed rail.
Here in USA, trying to respect the rights of all the interest groups brings us to gridlock. Still, I prefer the US system for it's freedom of speech. Better innovations happen when people are allowed to think outside the box.
Maybe we have gone too far in that freedom, to the point of gridlock. If we could figure out how to maintain our rights to speak out, to have transparency and to think outside the box, while reducing the gridlock we face, it could be the key to a better future.
Friday, January 27, 2023
Colorado River still low in spite of more rains, this winter, in California
Recent storms, in California, haven't done much to help the dry Colorado River Basin that's mostly east of California.
Snowpack in the Sierra and northern California helps the Sacramento / San Juaquin Valley, but way down on the Mexican border is the Imperial Valley; a place where much of our winter vegetable crops come from.
The Imperial Valley relies on water from the Colorado River. That, along with much of Los Angeles, Arizona and other states, rely on the Colorado River which never even had the water flow originally estimated, in the 1920s, when the Southwest water system was designed.
Drought, related to climate change, has reduced the flow still more since 2000. Continued economic growth driven by population growth keeps demanding water, in spite of significant conservation measures.
As the locals and states cannot come to agreement, the Federal Government, under Biden, may have to force a divvying up of the water; bound to be politically difficult. Otherwise, the tap will just stop on it's own, such as when the reservoirs reach "dead pool" levels.
I would guess dead pool means no more water flowing until water, in a reservoir, reaches back to the level of an intake pipe.
I've often thought they will need large desalination projects, from the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of California, for the Imperial Valley. San Diego already gets much of it's water this way, but plans for the Imperial Valley have been rejected, so far, by California water / environmental organizations. Similar ideas are being discussed for Arizona.
Whether we take action to create more fresh water, or not, we have to face the reality of population and economic growth having outpaced the water supply that's available today. More than just the people who live in those areas rely on food grown in those areas.
Snowpack in the Sierra and northern California helps the Sacramento / San Juaquin Valley, but way down on the Mexican border is the Imperial Valley; a place where much of our winter vegetable crops come from.
The Imperial Valley relies on water from the Colorado River. That, along with much of Los Angeles, Arizona and other states, rely on the Colorado River which never even had the water flow originally estimated, in the 1920s, when the Southwest water system was designed.
Drought, related to climate change, has reduced the flow still more since 2000. Continued economic growth driven by population growth keeps demanding water, in spite of significant conservation measures.
As the locals and states cannot come to agreement, the Federal Government, under Biden, may have to force a divvying up of the water; bound to be politically difficult. Otherwise, the tap will just stop on it's own, such as when the reservoirs reach "dead pool" levels.
I would guess dead pool means no more water flowing until water, in a reservoir, reaches back to the level of an intake pipe.
I've often thought they will need large desalination projects, from the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of California, for the Imperial Valley. San Diego already gets much of it's water this way, but plans for the Imperial Valley have been rejected, so far, by California water / environmental organizations. Similar ideas are being discussed for Arizona.
Whether we take action to create more fresh water, or not, we have to face the reality of population and economic growth having outpaced the water supply that's available today. More than just the people who live in those areas rely on food grown in those areas.
Wednesday, January 25, 2023
Raising taxes or cutting the budget; two political third rails that clash.
On the debt ceiling, I've thought that Republicans should make public a draft budget cutting plan so the American people can see it.
A similar idea has been expressed in high places; beyond just my Facebook wall. I saw in the news.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said on the Senate floor on Monday that the GOP should reveal their intentions to the public, saying that "Republicans are talking about draconian cuts, they have an obligation to show Americans what those cuts are and let the public react. … Does that mean cuts to Social Security or Medicare or child care or Pell Grants?"
Yes, making cuts is not an easy task, politically, as the American people have become so dependent on the government. Personally, I don't think dependency is necessarily a bad thing. It's part of modern society. Raising taxes on upper income people would help. Raising the cap for funding Social Security, for instance. Either raising taxes, or cutting budgets are two political "third rails" that clash.
We have muddled through with deficit spending made easier from quantitative easing (new money created) by the Federal Reserve. This has lead to a form of inflation which could be somewhat mild compared to the other alternatives. Mild compared to draconian budget cuts at least.
We'll see what happens as the giants, in Washington DC, struggle with this dilemma.
A growing part of the Federal budget is disaster relief. That's another, of many things the government provides, where it's difficult to make cuts. It's difficult for politicians to turn their backs on the American people when they are in need. Somehow, we do need to figure out how to make our lives and our society more resilient.
A similar idea has been expressed in high places; beyond just my Facebook wall. I saw in the news.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said on the Senate floor on Monday that the GOP should reveal their intentions to the public, saying that "Republicans are talking about draconian cuts, they have an obligation to show Americans what those cuts are and let the public react. … Does that mean cuts to Social Security or Medicare or child care or Pell Grants?"
Yes, making cuts is not an easy task, politically, as the American people have become so dependent on the government. Personally, I don't think dependency is necessarily a bad thing. It's part of modern society. Raising taxes on upper income people would help. Raising the cap for funding Social Security, for instance. Either raising taxes, or cutting budgets are two political "third rails" that clash.
We have muddled through with deficit spending made easier from quantitative easing (new money created) by the Federal Reserve. This has lead to a form of inflation which could be somewhat mild compared to the other alternatives. Mild compared to draconian budget cuts at least.
We'll see what happens as the giants, in Washington DC, struggle with this dilemma.
A growing part of the Federal budget is disaster relief. That's another, of many things the government provides, where it's difficult to make cuts. It's difficult for politicians to turn their backs on the American people when they are in need. Somehow, we do need to figure out how to make our lives and our society more resilient.
Reducing culture of gun ownership is most powerful change
I think that changes in culture are usually more powerful than top down changes in law. Reducing consumer demand for oil, versus outlawing oil production.
A similar idea can work for reducing gun violence as well. A cultural change means less guns and less anger in American society. That's what we need, which may sound idealistic.
Changing the law can help, but it's secondary. I'm in favor of more stringent legislation about gun ownership, but I think it wouldn't be a magic bullet; speaking of bullets. Cultural change so there are less guns floating around in society is the main need.
I think overall murder rates, on a per capita basis, are lower now than in decades past, but we seem to hear more about mass shootings these days. I wonder if that has to do with a greater proliferation of semi automatic weapons in recent years?
Laws, could change that, to some extent. It's crazy to allow so many high powered weapons in our society. On the other hand, now there is the worry about things like home made weapons from 3D printing which folks can use to get around the law. Again, a change in culture is what we need most.
A similar idea can work for reducing gun violence as well. A cultural change means less guns and less anger in American society. That's what we need, which may sound idealistic.
Changing the law can help, but it's secondary. I'm in favor of more stringent legislation about gun ownership, but I think it wouldn't be a magic bullet; speaking of bullets. Cultural change so there are less guns floating around in society is the main need.
I think overall murder rates, on a per capita basis, are lower now than in decades past, but we seem to hear more about mass shootings these days. I wonder if that has to do with a greater proliferation of semi automatic weapons in recent years?
Laws, could change that, to some extent. It's crazy to allow so many high powered weapons in our society. On the other hand, now there is the worry about things like home made weapons from 3D printing which folks can use to get around the law. Again, a change in culture is what we need most.
Friday, January 06, 2023
McCarthy's troubled House leadership bid, versus more extremists on the right. I tend to be a moderate on the left.
It looks like radical conservatives, who hate government, can't govern. The Speaker of House debacle points that out. Hardliners are holding out against McCarthy, who is quite conservative himself.
The center does seem to be strengthening in USA. There is some speculation that Democrats, in the House who are now staying out of the internal Republican strife, may weigh in to push the situation, in the Republican majority House, more to the center.
A more moderate Republican, Fred Upton, is a possibility, though retired. He could come back to fill that position and at least get the House functioning again.
As for more radical Democrats, I find myself, politically, pretty moderate. In personal lifestyle, I am quite outside the norm of American life. No car, no family, except brothers and sisters who I get along with okay. I seem to have less interest in money than most Americans.
Still, it seems like the politics of the far left isn't supported by the lifestyles and asperations of most Americans so moderates, making incremental changes, seem to be the most viable political option.
As for addressing climate change, that is a global problem and we may just have to learn the hard way. Climate is going to follow the laws of physics, whether politicians, and the public like it or not.
Much is still unknown as to just how that will play out in our complex world and economy. It looks like our best hope for a technological solution to the climate change problem is solar energy.
The center does seem to be strengthening in USA. There is some speculation that Democrats, in the House who are now staying out of the internal Republican strife, may weigh in to push the situation, in the Republican majority House, more to the center.
A more moderate Republican, Fred Upton, is a possibility, though retired. He could come back to fill that position and at least get the House functioning again.
As for more radical Democrats, I find myself, politically, pretty moderate. In personal lifestyle, I am quite outside the norm of American life. No car, no family, except brothers and sisters who I get along with okay. I seem to have less interest in money than most Americans.
Still, it seems like the politics of the far left isn't supported by the lifestyles and asperations of most Americans so moderates, making incremental changes, seem to be the most viable political option.
As for addressing climate change, that is a global problem and we may just have to learn the hard way. Climate is going to follow the laws of physics, whether politicians, and the public like it or not.
Much is still unknown as to just how that will play out in our complex world and economy. It looks like our best hope for a technological solution to the climate change problem is solar energy.
Saturday, December 31, 2022
My New Year's Greeting 2022 - 2023
I mailed out around 27 of these. Color Xerox "paper" form. Handed out about 10 more; locally.
A project I have done each year. Now things are less and less paper form; more and more online.
Here it is online. My annual report, as if I were a corporation, or a non profit. The year 2022.
Happy New Year, 2023.
Friday, December 30, 2022
New York Representative George Santos; the stereotype of a used car salesman on steroids.
GOP Representative George Santos, from New York, who is said to have lied about his background, must have been the stereotype of a used car salesman on steroids.
A license for using the Information Highway, or how about the concept of speeding on the Information Highway?
On BBC News there was a news item about someone's suggestion that there should be a license for using the information highway. To curb fake news and so forth.
This got me thinking about another idea. The concept of "speeding" on the information highway; people who are too quick to repost things without better information, rumor spreading and so forth.
Slowing down, thinking and going beyond hasty reaction is important on the information highway.
This got me thinking about another idea. The concept of "speeding" on the information highway; people who are too quick to repost things without better information, rumor spreading and so forth.
Slowing down, thinking and going beyond hasty reaction is important on the information highway.
Self driving cars could reduce road rage
A friend of mine pointed out a good effect of self driving cars, if we ever get them. They could eliminate the angry, aggressive driver. Even eliminate road rage. Idiots, behind the wheel would have to just relax and let the car drive. They could read a book, use their cellphone or whatever. It would be more like riding in an elevator. The elevator does the driving for us and there isn't much the passenger can do to make it go any faster, or slower.
I've been in elevators, where folks have joked when they pushed the button for a floor to get off at, "I'll crash the elevator."
The friend, that was discussing this concept, is into cars, himself. He likes fixing them and so forth. I think he sees the advent of self driving cars as a step forward.
I've been in elevators, where folks have joked when they pushed the button for a floor to get off at, "I'll crash the elevator."
The friend, that was discussing this concept, is into cars, himself. He likes fixing them and so forth. I think he sees the advent of self driving cars as a step forward.
Dust from the Berlin Wall
Back in the 1980s and 90s, even some today, I participated in a network of artists that exchanged grass routes creativity in the mail. This before Facebook and even much of online life.
During the fall of the Berlin Wall, someone sent out this hand made postcard with debris behind plastic. I got one.
Wednesday, December 28, 2022
Broadcasting church services has changed over the years
I recently watched the earlier of two Christmas Eve services at Christ Church Episcopal Cathedral, in Louisville, KY. Watched on Facebook videos, after the fact, but nice. I'm still amazed we can do this now. Why Louisville? My brother Jack Ashworth was the organist.
Brings back early memories of when Jack was organist at Pioneer Methodist Church, in Walla Walla, WA. Back then, he was a student at Whitman College. One day, my mom and I tried to tune in the faint signal, as that service was broadcast over KTEL, Walla Walla.
We were trying to listen, in the far fringe area. We were in Pullman, so the faint signal had a long way to travel.
Today, I see on Wiki, that KTEL is now news talk. Back then I think totally different format and owners. I forgot the format, back then, except it broadcast the service.
When to take down the decorations.
Someone out there ask, when do you take the Christmas tree and decorations down? My answer was.
When I was a child, the "real" tree needed to come down before it was so dry to become a fire hazard in the house. Often it was pretty crispy by New Year's Day. Today, most people (I think) have artificial trees.
As for decorations, I remember people taking them down on "Twelfth Night." I guess this was, supposedly, 12 days after the Christ Child was born so sometime around the 5th of January. Today quite a few folks think, whoever that was that they call "Jesus" was more likely born in the Spring; rather than Winter Solstice.
Today, most people seem to leave the beautiful lights up around their houses till well into spring. Especially this far north, in Bellingham, where winter darkness is long. They are sometimes called Solstice Lights.
When I was a child, the "real" tree needed to come down before it was so dry to become a fire hazard in the house. Often it was pretty crispy by New Year's Day. Today, most people (I think) have artificial trees.
As for decorations, I remember people taking them down on "Twelfth Night." I guess this was, supposedly, 12 days after the Christ Child was born so sometime around the 5th of January. Today quite a few folks think, whoever that was that they call "Jesus" was more likely born in the Spring; rather than Winter Solstice.
Today, most people seem to leave the beautiful lights up around their houses till well into spring. Especially this far north, in Bellingham, where winter darkness is long. They are sometimes called Solstice Lights.
Christmas is about the toys for some kids
When I was a child, I was probably like most other kids. I was a bit materialistic, since children tend to see things in more simple eyes.
Christmas was about the presents under the tree; the new toys and so forth.
Our Christmases were simple, but the new toys, that we had, were still fun.
Today, my Christmas isn't about shopping, but more about parties. Mingling with friends I haven't seen for a long time. It's about socializing.
I'm no longer in a family with kids, but I do remember mother saying, after I went off to college and was back for Christmas Break:
"Christmas is not about the presents, but it's about our presence;" the presence of the people around us.
Problem, today, is that families seem to be spread out across long distances and Christmas Vacation is way to short. To do "family time;" it becomes a traveling nightmare. One must hit that one day, on the calendar, with the same accuracy that the Apollo 8 spacecraft was able to achieve with it's "orbital insertion burn;" Speaking of my 1968 Christmas Eve memories.
I don't travel for Christmas, so, for me, it's about the mingling of local people. Reaching out on Facebook and so forth.
One nice memory I do have, from childhood, was the long, long Christmas and Summer Vacations we got from school. Today, there is the phrase, "shop till you drop." I'm no longer in a family setting, with kids, though I get along well with my siblings in distant places.
Now, being retired, It can feel like that long vacation. My last days, at work, did bring back those childhood feelings of anticipation about the last day of school.
Christmas was about the presents under the tree; the new toys and so forth.
Our Christmases were simple, but the new toys, that we had, were still fun.
Today, my Christmas isn't about shopping, but more about parties. Mingling with friends I haven't seen for a long time. It's about socializing.
I'm no longer in a family with kids, but I do remember mother saying, after I went off to college and was back for Christmas Break:
"Christmas is not about the presents, but it's about our presence;" the presence of the people around us.
Problem, today, is that families seem to be spread out across long distances and Christmas Vacation is way to short. To do "family time;" it becomes a traveling nightmare. One must hit that one day, on the calendar, with the same accuracy that the Apollo 8 spacecraft was able to achieve with it's "orbital insertion burn;" Speaking of my 1968 Christmas Eve memories.
I don't travel for Christmas, so, for me, it's about the mingling of local people. Reaching out on Facebook and so forth.
One nice memory I do have, from childhood, was the long, long Christmas and Summer Vacations we got from school. Today, there is the phrase, "shop till you drop." I'm no longer in a family setting, with kids, though I get along well with my siblings in distant places.
Now, being retired, It can feel like that long vacation. My last days, at work, did bring back those childhood feelings of anticipation about the last day of school.
Facebook is the poor man's version of celebrity status.
Maybe I should say "poor person's." It's an old phrase. Status as measured by the engagement one is likely to get. Comments, discussion. Better in that respect, than my own blog; unless I was a celebrity for some other reason; like for instance Kim Kardashian.
I also do get lots of interaction from being out and about at events and other face to face things locally. Being out as a pedestrian and on my bicycle as well.
One place with good conversation was the sauna area at YMCA, but, due to the pandemic and other reasons, that part of the Y has been closed and (I think) no plans to bring it back.
I keep adapting okay to the world around me so far.
I also do get lots of interaction from being out and about at events and other face to face things locally. Being out as a pedestrian and on my bicycle as well.
One place with good conversation was the sauna area at YMCA, but, due to the pandemic and other reasons, that part of the Y has been closed and (I think) no plans to bring it back.
I keep adapting okay to the world around me so far.
I'm glad I am not traveling far, this time of year.
On Facebook, I keep seeing tales of woe from folks trying to visit distant families and other travels in the storm. Some of the tales are quite creative. Others more of pure frustration, or even danger. The whole country is experiencing an intense period of weather. People are still trying to hold on to so many traditions that are being stressed by change.
I'm just glad I'm staying close to my home; especially this time of year.
I'm just glad I'm staying close to my home; especially this time of year.
Sunday, December 18, 2022
Think of immune system as being your body's police and the vaccine as the person who calls 911.
Here is an analogy, about vaccines, that just occurred to me.
Your immune system is your body's police and the vaccine is the person who calls 911.
Yes, health of the immune system is important, but the vaccine is needed to prep the immune system before it's too late. That's, as I understand it, how vaccines work.
Your immune system is your body's police and the vaccine is the person who calls 911.
Yes, health of the immune system is important, but the vaccine is needed to prep the immune system before it's too late. That's, as I understand it, how vaccines work.
An idea related to recent controversy in Bellingham Public Schools. There was news of a student walkout at Squalicum High School.
There has been a controversy in Bellingham schools that's making news. I'm not involved in schools so I just see what's in media. Rather than speculating on whether the staff did anything wrong, or not, I just thought of this idea, which is more about society in general.
Maybe Bellingham could benefit from the development of a "Therapeutic Boarding School." When I grew up, students talked about being sent to "reform school," but the reform school concept had it's drawbacks.
I would guess that residential treatment; somewhat like incarceration; is still needed for some students that cause a lot of problems in the general population. I read that the newer types of therapeutic boarding schools exist in some areas.
Maybe Bellingham could benefit from the development of a "Therapeutic Boarding School." When I grew up, students talked about being sent to "reform school," but the reform school concept had it's drawbacks.
I would guess that residential treatment; somewhat like incarceration; is still needed for some students that cause a lot of problems in the general population. I read that the newer types of therapeutic boarding schools exist in some areas.
Tips on how to tell someone is a real person online.
Some of my thoughts on how to tell real people and friend requests from fake "people on Facebook."
Fake people look like real people as they try to be good at being imposters. An easier way to tell is from content on their Facebook pages. Little content is a red flag.
Content that is repetitive, commercial or related to dating can be red flags. The stuff that is often cookie cutter or following a script that leads to money, sex, or "relationships."
A good sign for the page to be about a real person is variety of content, interesting topics, possibly politics and stuff about a local area. A page that is grounded in locality, rather than some national, or worldwide promotion. Local community things from any locality is usually a sign of real.
Another good sign is a page from someone you have had other connections with, such as face to face contact, or another type of connection.
I'll click on the person's profile to see what they post to their wall. It is good if the wall is set to "public" so it can be seen by all Facebook users. Then one can brows it.
If you can't see much before friending a person, it's a red flag, but one can friend, look at the wall and then unfriend, I guess, if the wall looks fake.
Fake people look like real people as they try to be good at being imposters. An easier way to tell is from content on their Facebook pages. Little content is a red flag.
Content that is repetitive, commercial or related to dating can be red flags. The stuff that is often cookie cutter or following a script that leads to money, sex, or "relationships."
A good sign for the page to be about a real person is variety of content, interesting topics, possibly politics and stuff about a local area. A page that is grounded in locality, rather than some national, or worldwide promotion. Local community things from any locality is usually a sign of real.
Another good sign is a page from someone you have had other connections with, such as face to face contact, or another type of connection.
I'll click on the person's profile to see what they post to their wall. It is good if the wall is set to "public" so it can be seen by all Facebook users. Then one can brows it.
If you can't see much before friending a person, it's a red flag, but one can friend, look at the wall and then unfriend, I guess, if the wall looks fake.
Tuesday, December 13, 2022
Sinema goes independent. What will Manchin do? Senate reform is needed to reduce the zero sum consequences of our two party system.
Now that Senator Sinema is no longer a Democrat, but an independent, there is worry about what Joe Machin might do. So far, he's sticking with the Democrats.
I'm afraid if he were to not be, officially, a Democrat, the Senate could go back to Republican majority putting the likes of Mitch McConnel back in charge. Remember McConnel's refusal to even hold hearings for Obama's last Supreme Court nominee.
The big issue should be Senate Reform so this zero sum game, between the two parties, isn't so devastating.
We should think about how to reform the power that Senate leaders have to block things getting to the floor. Reform committee chairmanship rules and so forth.
Power in the Senate needs to be more diversified; especially if people long for more diversity of political parties; such as even candidates like Bernie Sanders.
Come to think about it, I wonder how they count Bernie in terms of determining who's in majority in the Senate? He's not officially a Democrat either, though he still votes mostly in their favor. Even Sinema says she still votes on the Democratic side, for the most part.
When it comes to 2024 election, the "split vote spoiler problem" is an issue. Democrats need to be careful not to shoot themselves in the foot.
More importantly, rather than being mad at these two Senators, the issue of reform in the Senate and the way government works should be discussed.
So many people, including Sanders supporters, do think we need to figure out how to get past the two party duopoly. Yes, I do favor the Democrats, but the whole "zero sum, winner take all" situation is a problem.
I'm afraid if he were to not be, officially, a Democrat, the Senate could go back to Republican majority putting the likes of Mitch McConnel back in charge. Remember McConnel's refusal to even hold hearings for Obama's last Supreme Court nominee.
The big issue should be Senate Reform so this zero sum game, between the two parties, isn't so devastating.
We should think about how to reform the power that Senate leaders have to block things getting to the floor. Reform committee chairmanship rules and so forth.
Power in the Senate needs to be more diversified; especially if people long for more diversity of political parties; such as even candidates like Bernie Sanders.
Come to think about it, I wonder how they count Bernie in terms of determining who's in majority in the Senate? He's not officially a Democrat either, though he still votes mostly in their favor. Even Sinema says she still votes on the Democratic side, for the most part.
When it comes to 2024 election, the "split vote spoiler problem" is an issue. Democrats need to be careful not to shoot themselves in the foot.
More importantly, rather than being mad at these two Senators, the issue of reform in the Senate and the way government works should be discussed.
So many people, including Sanders supporters, do think we need to figure out how to get past the two party duopoly. Yes, I do favor the Democrats, but the whole "zero sum, winner take all" situation is a problem.
Monday, December 05, 2022
Guns, substations and drag queens? Connecting some dots of speculation at least, about North Carolina
The power outage in North Carolina is in the news. I guess substations can be vulnerable to firearms and firearms are rampant in USA.
Then I read that there is speculation relating this crime to protests against a drag show. Speculation, but some connections. Drag show had to proceed in darkness.
I think about vulnerability of the power system in Ukraine as well. The power system being attacked by Russia who, feels threatened being surrounded by more openness in the west.
Bad marks on the right from many directions. Proliferation of guns and I think substations can be vulnerable, let alone people.
Then the issue of prejudice against dragshows. At least speculation I have read in the news.
Add to that the power situation with the war between Russia and Ukraine. I make that connection. Russia feeling threatened by the changing world as I read they aren't that keen on drag queens either.
Then I read that there is speculation relating this crime to protests against a drag show. Speculation, but some connections. Drag show had to proceed in darkness.
I think about vulnerability of the power system in Ukraine as well. The power system being attacked by Russia who, feels threatened being surrounded by more openness in the west.
Bad marks on the right from many directions. Proliferation of guns and I think substations can be vulnerable, let alone people.
Then the issue of prejudice against dragshows. At least speculation I have read in the news.
Add to that the power situation with the war between Russia and Ukraine. I make that connection. Russia feeling threatened by the changing world as I read they aren't that keen on drag queens either.
Sunday, December 04, 2022
Cooling the over heated asset and housing markets. Probably the main tool the Fed has to try and dampen inflation.
A major tool that the Federal Reserve has to try and control inflation is the Fed's influence on interest rates.
I would guess that the primary effect that rising interest rates has is to cool down asset prices. Inflation in existing home values; for instance. Homes are an asset. Home value/price inflation has been rampant for decades.
As time goes on, the rising cost of living creates more pressure to increase wages so people can still afford to live in an area. I would guess the Fed has less direct control over wages and most other prices in the economy, but inflating asset prices is the lever it can use to try and control the rest of inflation.
Asset price inflation also relates to stock prices and various other things that can add inflationary pressure to the economy. If interest rates are too low, corporations are (I would guess) more likely to add to their capital costs by buying out one another. Corporate mergers based on easy money.
With the big issue of housing, raising the interest rates can have both a positive "anti inflation" effect, but it can also have a negative, "more inflation" effect.
High interest rates can reduce the supply of housing by putting a damper on new construction. Eventually housing supply falls behind population growth in a region which can drive up prices.
So even this tool of cooling the overheated housing market is a blunt tool. It can have the opposite of it's intended purpose. Since long time homeowners may be more apt to vote, inflation that was confined to assets was less noticed by politicians in decades past. This during the Bush, Obama, Trump years of easy money and continuing government deficits.
Now that wages have been going up, since Covid, inflation is more rampant in things like the cost of a restaurant meal or food at the grocery store. Inflation is now more "across the board."
The alarm bells are now ringing about inflation.
Quite a few other factors contribute to inflation as well, such as supply chain issues, wages, gas prices and so forth. These other factors may be less directly influenced by interest rates than inflation of assets, but it's all interconnected so it's all effected to some extent.
Gas prices are a factor, but they are influenced by a lot of things, such as the war between Russia and Ukraine. Rising interest rates may have less effect here.
Gasoline demand keeps going up while the future of oil production is in question, due to climate change. There are a lot of moving parts in an economy. Many influences and not easy to pin blame on any one factor. That's my take for today, I guess.
Sometimes I wake up in the morning and just start thinking about economics.
I recently read an article about the struggle that the Fed is having bringing down growth in wages since the job market is so strong these days. They are trying to at least cool wage growth a bit.
No mention of housing in that article, but I think the bigger influence, that the Fed has, would not be about wages, but about cooling the housing and asset markets. Wages is more along for the ride.
I would guess that the primary effect that rising interest rates has is to cool down asset prices. Inflation in existing home values; for instance. Homes are an asset. Home value/price inflation has been rampant for decades.
As time goes on, the rising cost of living creates more pressure to increase wages so people can still afford to live in an area. I would guess the Fed has less direct control over wages and most other prices in the economy, but inflating asset prices is the lever it can use to try and control the rest of inflation.
Asset price inflation also relates to stock prices and various other things that can add inflationary pressure to the economy. If interest rates are too low, corporations are (I would guess) more likely to add to their capital costs by buying out one another. Corporate mergers based on easy money.
With the big issue of housing, raising the interest rates can have both a positive "anti inflation" effect, but it can also have a negative, "more inflation" effect.
High interest rates can reduce the supply of housing by putting a damper on new construction. Eventually housing supply falls behind population growth in a region which can drive up prices.
So even this tool of cooling the overheated housing market is a blunt tool. It can have the opposite of it's intended purpose. Since long time homeowners may be more apt to vote, inflation that was confined to assets was less noticed by politicians in decades past. This during the Bush, Obama, Trump years of easy money and continuing government deficits.
Now that wages have been going up, since Covid, inflation is more rampant in things like the cost of a restaurant meal or food at the grocery store. Inflation is now more "across the board."
The alarm bells are now ringing about inflation.
Quite a few other factors contribute to inflation as well, such as supply chain issues, wages, gas prices and so forth. These other factors may be less directly influenced by interest rates than inflation of assets, but it's all interconnected so it's all effected to some extent.
Gas prices are a factor, but they are influenced by a lot of things, such as the war between Russia and Ukraine. Rising interest rates may have less effect here.
Gasoline demand keeps going up while the future of oil production is in question, due to climate change. There are a lot of moving parts in an economy. Many influences and not easy to pin blame on any one factor. That's my take for today, I guess.
Sometimes I wake up in the morning and just start thinking about economics.
I recently read an article about the struggle that the Fed is having bringing down growth in wages since the job market is so strong these days. They are trying to at least cool wage growth a bit.
No mention of housing in that article, but I think the bigger influence, that the Fed has, would not be about wages, but about cooling the housing and asset markets. Wages is more along for the ride.
Monday, November 28, 2022
If the new Republican House turns it's back on trying to solve climate change and trying to bring transparency to Trump's tax returns.
After many years and lots of wrangling by lawyers, each getting their fees, the Supreme Court has finally removed the last obstacle to more transparency in Donald Trump's tax returns.
The House committee investigating these things will, supposedly, gain access to the returns just in the "nick of time," before next year when the House returns to Republican rule.
Seems likely that Republicans will abolish that committee so I hope committee members have thought ahead. Maybe some Democrats can still keep access to the returns, even if the committee gets abolished.
Maybe even the public will gain access, but at least some lawmakers should be able to maintain access, hopefully.
I also hear that the Republican House is likely to abolish a committee that tries to deal with climate change. Attitude, in the Republican led House, might become "just forget about trying to address that issue." "Don't worry, be happy."
This, while the US and most other countries, in the world, continue to fall short of carbon reduction goals that were set a few years back at the Paris Climate Change Conference.
Given the fossil fuel technology we are still using today, it isn't easy to meet those goals while continuing to live in big homes and drive big cars.
There are wealthy oligarchs and upper middle class all over the world plus many of the world's poor are aspiring to have at least some of what upper middle class and the oligarchs have.
The House committee investigating these things will, supposedly, gain access to the returns just in the "nick of time," before next year when the House returns to Republican rule.
Seems likely that Republicans will abolish that committee so I hope committee members have thought ahead. Maybe some Democrats can still keep access to the returns, even if the committee gets abolished.
Maybe even the public will gain access, but at least some lawmakers should be able to maintain access, hopefully.
I also hear that the Republican House is likely to abolish a committee that tries to deal with climate change. Attitude, in the Republican led House, might become "just forget about trying to address that issue." "Don't worry, be happy."
This, while the US and most other countries, in the world, continue to fall short of carbon reduction goals that were set a few years back at the Paris Climate Change Conference.
Given the fossil fuel technology we are still using today, it isn't easy to meet those goals while continuing to live in big homes and drive big cars.
There are wealthy oligarchs and upper middle class all over the world plus many of the world's poor are aspiring to have at least some of what upper middle class and the oligarchs have.
I am plenty warm in a shared building as winter arrives in Bellingham
Colder weather has arrived in Bellingham and it's nice to be in my well heated little apartment where the heat is included in my rent.
As I bike around town, I wear layers with a warm jacket as top layer. I'm still comfortable.
Where I am now, the heat is quite good, but I remember another form of public housing, back in the 1970s when my dorm room at Fairhaven College wasn't quite as warm.
Back then, I was taking physics 101 where one of the topics was about heat flow. "The second law of thermal dynamics." I remember putting that learning to practical use when I pointed a small fan at the radiator in my room. The room quickly heated up to over 70 degrees. Moving air transfers heat.
This solution wouldn't work for all heating systems, but in the case of the dorms, there was a chokepoint at the radiator in our rooms. The radiator was pretty small so it didn't have much surface area to transfer heat from the hot water, flowing through the radiator, to the air in the room. The fan brought more heat out of the passing hot water.
Were I am now, the baseboard radiator is the full width of my apartment. Plenty of room for heat transfer so no fan needed. Both places use a centralized source for the hot water. Here it's from a gas boiler on the first floor. We also have some of our energy from electric solar panels on the roof and a heat pump system they call "geothermal."
New technologies provided from various government grants.
At Western's campus, which includes the Fairhaven College Dorms, the heat comes from a central boiler plant on campus. One of my interests has been heating systems so I remember touring the steam plant at WWU back in my college years. More recently someone in maintenance, for this building, showed me around the system here.
Several years ago, there was an open house on the roof of another Bellingham Housing Authority Building. A look at the solar systems on the three Bellingham high rises. Back then, one of the tour guides was Alex Ramel who is now a state legislator.
As I bike around town, I wear layers with a warm jacket as top layer. I'm still comfortable.
Where I am now, the heat is quite good, but I remember another form of public housing, back in the 1970s when my dorm room at Fairhaven College wasn't quite as warm.
Back then, I was taking physics 101 where one of the topics was about heat flow. "The second law of thermal dynamics." I remember putting that learning to practical use when I pointed a small fan at the radiator in my room. The room quickly heated up to over 70 degrees. Moving air transfers heat.
This solution wouldn't work for all heating systems, but in the case of the dorms, there was a chokepoint at the radiator in our rooms. The radiator was pretty small so it didn't have much surface area to transfer heat from the hot water, flowing through the radiator, to the air in the room. The fan brought more heat out of the passing hot water.
Were I am now, the baseboard radiator is the full width of my apartment. Plenty of room for heat transfer so no fan needed. Both places use a centralized source for the hot water. Here it's from a gas boiler on the first floor. We also have some of our energy from electric solar panels on the roof and a heat pump system they call "geothermal."
New technologies provided from various government grants.
At Western's campus, which includes the Fairhaven College Dorms, the heat comes from a central boiler plant on campus. One of my interests has been heating systems so I remember touring the steam plant at WWU back in my college years. More recently someone in maintenance, for this building, showed me around the system here.
Several years ago, there was an open house on the roof of another Bellingham Housing Authority Building. A look at the solar systems on the three Bellingham high rises. Back then, one of the tour guides was Alex Ramel who is now a state legislator.
Thursday, November 24, 2022
A better term than institutionalized racism.
I've never liked the term "institutional racism" since civil rights laws have removed overt forms of racism officially practiced by institutions. Racism still exists, but it morphs into forms that escape civil rights laws.
"Historical racism" might be a more useful term. The lingering effects of past history when racism was more institutionalized. For instance today's restrictive zoning for "single family" leading to high housing costs in so many neighborhoods. This continues to perpetuate some segregation of race based, in part, on who's grandparents were able to buy property in certain neighborhoods of the 1940s and 1950s. This effects who has access to inheritances today which still effects who can afford to live where.
"Historical racism" might be a more useful term. The lingering effects of past history when racism was more institutionalized. For instance today's restrictive zoning for "single family" leading to high housing costs in so many neighborhoods. This continues to perpetuate some segregation of race based, in part, on who's grandparents were able to buy property in certain neighborhoods of the 1940s and 1950s. This effects who has access to inheritances today which still effects who can afford to live where.
Friday, November 18, 2022
World passes 8 billion population mark around the time of COP27 Climate Change Summit
World population is now passing 8 billion. Growth is said to be slowing, but still high in places like Egypt; happens to be where COP27 was held.
Population growth and climate change are seen as causes for larger migrations of people in future years.
I saw one article saying this leads to political pushback in shortrun, but still could be a benefit to the economies and talent pools of northern countries in the long run.
I'd say we would have to fix our housing shortage and traffic problems first. USA would need to plan for more density and less dependency on the automobile to accommodate a huge flow of immigrants.
The flow exacerbated by bigoted anti human rights and anti LGBTA policies in much of the non western nations. Nations that still oppress alternatives to procreation as the only lifestyle choice.
I read that world population growth is slowing, but still high in a few nations like Egypt, Nigeria, Ethiopia and Congo.
Egypt, site of recent Climate Conference, has little land area and it's water supply, from Nile River, is in question. Growing needs up river; such as in Ethiopia, divert water.
Ethiopia is in civil war as well. There's likely to be a lot of suffering in non western nations due to population growth, bad governance and aspirations for more prosperous lives.
The issue of western nations paying reparations was a sticking point in the conference and it seems unlikely to happen. The west is struggling with it's own green transition and housing shortages.
Hopefully we can and will help the rest of the world adopt greener technology; if we adopt it ourselves which is still in question.
Maybe the rest of the world can teach us to live more simply, but that's still in question also.
I think the road to a brighter future will require big changes in thinking both in the traditional values of non western nations as well as the way space and resources are used in prosperous western nations.
Here in USA we will have to change our ways and plan for more density.
If changes happen in both the west and the non west, we can still welcome new generations and have a future.
Population growth and climate change are seen as causes for larger migrations of people in future years.
I saw one article saying this leads to political pushback in shortrun, but still could be a benefit to the economies and talent pools of northern countries in the long run.
I'd say we would have to fix our housing shortage and traffic problems first. USA would need to plan for more density and less dependency on the automobile to accommodate a huge flow of immigrants.
The flow exacerbated by bigoted anti human rights and anti LGBTA policies in much of the non western nations. Nations that still oppress alternatives to procreation as the only lifestyle choice.
I read that world population growth is slowing, but still high in a few nations like Egypt, Nigeria, Ethiopia and Congo.
Egypt, site of recent Climate Conference, has little land area and it's water supply, from Nile River, is in question. Growing needs up river; such as in Ethiopia, divert water.
Ethiopia is in civil war as well. There's likely to be a lot of suffering in non western nations due to population growth, bad governance and aspirations for more prosperous lives.
The issue of western nations paying reparations was a sticking point in the conference and it seems unlikely to happen. The west is struggling with it's own green transition and housing shortages.
Hopefully we can and will help the rest of the world adopt greener technology; if we adopt it ourselves which is still in question.
Maybe the rest of the world can teach us to live more simply, but that's still in question also.
I think the road to a brighter future will require big changes in thinking both in the traditional values of non western nations as well as the way space and resources are used in prosperous western nations.
Here in USA we will have to change our ways and plan for more density.
If changes happen in both the west and the non west, we can still welcome new generations and have a future.
Sunday, November 13, 2022
Good thing the Democrats did better than expected in November 2022.
I'm glad the Democrats are still majority in the Senate. Democrats did better than many of the pundits and polls expected in the 2022 Midterm elections. I feared that there might be a Republican wave, but it was more of a little splash. There are jokes about Ketchup splashed on the walls of Mar-A-Lago Resort.
The Democrats at least play lip service to trying to do something about reducing climate change. My ideas aren't exactly the Democratic talking points that tend to contadict one another. Like reduce carbon footprint, but still try and have cheap gas.
Rich, yuppie neighborhood associations, often liberal, versus construction of more housing; including affordable housing. Yes the Democrats are a party of the "big tent." They seem less authoritarian that Republicans, or at least the iron fist of Mitch McConnell's nomination and confirmation process for the Supreme Court.
Within the framework of the big tent, I can function. The outcome of the tent may not always represent me, but it does seem like, as President Biden has said, democracy itself could be in the balance.
The Democrats at least play lip service to trying to do something about reducing climate change. My ideas aren't exactly the Democratic talking points that tend to contadict one another. Like reduce carbon footprint, but still try and have cheap gas.
Rich, yuppie neighborhood associations, often liberal, versus construction of more housing; including affordable housing. Yes the Democrats are a party of the "big tent." They seem less authoritarian that Republicans, or at least the iron fist of Mitch McConnell's nomination and confirmation process for the Supreme Court.
Within the framework of the big tent, I can function. The outcome of the tent may not always represent me, but it does seem like, as President Biden has said, democracy itself could be in the balance.
Saturday, November 12, 2022
Face to face communication more popular than Metaverse
In the living room of my childhood home was a plant called the Split Leaf Philodendron. New leaves would appear, at the top, as it reached for the ceiling. Soon it got there and mom said, "it's a nice plant, but where is it going to go next?"
That might be what's happening to Facebook as well as the rest of the world economy. Can one keep growing on a limited planet? Another miscalculation, that Zuckerberg is said to admit to, is thinking we would go more cyber than ever. More into the Metaverse versus real face to face interaction.
This trend was strong during the pandemic, but suddenly another shift in behavior. People are coming out of their cocoons and meeting face to face again.
Real "brick and mortar" dancing, dinner groups, discussions, even bowling. It's a good thing to see things opening up again after the pandemic.
I know, everyone isn't going out on the town again, but so many have that it seems like life is all but back to normal. Normal, just in time for another winter to set in, possibly making the pandemic still worse again.
I still use Facebook for it's original intent and I get out and about town. I try to have communication on many levels.
That might be what's happening to Facebook as well as the rest of the world economy. Can one keep growing on a limited planet? Another miscalculation, that Zuckerberg is said to admit to, is thinking we would go more cyber than ever. More into the Metaverse versus real face to face interaction.
This trend was strong during the pandemic, but suddenly another shift in behavior. People are coming out of their cocoons and meeting face to face again.
Real "brick and mortar" dancing, dinner groups, discussions, even bowling. It's a good thing to see things opening up again after the pandemic.
I know, everyone isn't going out on the town again, but so many have that it seems like life is all but back to normal. Normal, just in time for another winter to set in, possibly making the pandemic still worse again.
I still use Facebook for it's original intent and I get out and about town. I try to have communication on many levels.
Tuesday, November 08, 2022
When fickle voters keep swinging left, right, left, right, left.
Even if this election leans Republican, hopefully the road doesn't go all the way to fascism.
During the watch of Republicans, the economy could tighten up and go into recession anyway.
The Fed has been raising interest rates to try and take some of the inflationary pressure off of supply chains. This could lead to belt tightening and consumers grumbing at who's in power; their newly elected officials.
Climate change is still real and can take it's toll. Whoever is in power gets the blame. If Republicans are in charge, in various states and Congress, they may have a rough go of it.
Voters often change their minds pretty fast. In UK, conservative tax cuts were taken off the table quickly when the markets got nervous about unsustainable debt and the British Pound took a pounding.
During the watch of Republicans, the economy could tighten up and go into recession anyway.
The Fed has been raising interest rates to try and take some of the inflationary pressure off of supply chains. This could lead to belt tightening and consumers grumbing at who's in power; their newly elected officials.
Climate change is still real and can take it's toll. Whoever is in power gets the blame. If Republicans are in charge, in various states and Congress, they may have a rough go of it.
Voters often change their minds pretty fast. In UK, conservative tax cuts were taken off the table quickly when the markets got nervous about unsustainable debt and the British Pound took a pounding.
Sunday, November 06, 2022
Why political debates tend to put those wishing to reduce climate change on the defensive.
Some people might think I'm judgmental of people who drive cars. I realize that automobiles are the way most folks get around in our society. Some of my best friends drive cars.
The main thing I worry about is the way issues are framed in media and public discourse. Democrats and folks taking action against climate change are being hammered by the negative news about high gas prices. Republicans find this fertile ground for talking points.
I think society may have to accept high gas prices as a price for addressing climate change. Yes, it's harder on low income people, but we do need more thinking outside the box. Owning a car is often more expensive than public transit, if public transit is available and convenient in an area.
We need to connect the dots for longer term solutions. Technology can solve some of these problems for us; such as electric cars, solar energy and if we can develop hydrogen fusion.
Total reliance on private cars has other drawbacks as well; such as all the space taken up for parking as well as the safety issues.
Until green technology becomes widely available, average consumers do need to practice conservation.
One thing that bothers me is how so much of the political debate is about blaming someone; rather than solving problems. On the left, people tend to blame the oil companies; such as opposing pipelines and refineries that are still needed to keep the economy intact. Sometimes, there is even violent sabotage which can give Republicans more anti crime talking points. Yes, we can blame business and advertising for some of this situation, but human behavior, in mass, is very powerful. Republicans tend to emphasis personal responsibility. They certainly have their problems, but the idea of personal responsibility has merit.
Personal responsibility may not explain everything. We do tend to think in extremes of either or, but it is an important part of the discussion.
We need to rethink the discussion about personal responsibility and not turn all that turf over to the Republicans.
There is more to responsibility than just the typical Republican line that goes, "I was on drugs, I hit bottom, then went on the straight and narrow, got a job, worked my way up and now I'm a multi-millionaire."
There are other self help stories that lead to such things as health and community connection in one's personal life. The road to happiness doesn't always lead to becoming a multi millionaire.
We, as consumers and voters, do have more power than we often realize.
Too much blaming, on both sides, leads to much of the political vitriol.
Saturday, November 05, 2022
I hope Elon Musk's ego and problems swallowing Twitter doesn't take down SpaceX
I'm thinking Elon Musk might be having buyer's remorse upon buying Twitter. It's a likely speculation as he did try to back out of the deal; then he went ahead, maybe due to legal / contract issues.
I wouldn't know the details. It's above my paygrade; so to speak.
He might have bought something that will implode, or at least go down in value. Partially due to his management style. I'm not a fan of social media based on sound bytes anyway.
I'll admit, I have been a fan of SpaceX, one of Elon Musk's other companies. I'm a fan of innovation in science and space. SpaceX has done well. Sometimes private sector can innovate in ways that government is more clumsy at.
Still, SpaceX wouldn't be that far along if it wasn't for the lucrative business they have gotten from NASA (government) as a customer.
Public private partnership can be a good thing.
Musk's Ego may has gotten him into a few binds. Hopefully that situation doesn't sink SpaceX.
Corporate executives like to say things like "I built this," which may be partially true. I prefer a concept, expressed by former President Obama. Our personal triumphs "stand on the shoulders of others."
He couldn't have built it without his employees, the larger community and those who have built before us.
I wouldn't know the details. It's above my paygrade; so to speak.
He might have bought something that will implode, or at least go down in value. Partially due to his management style. I'm not a fan of social media based on sound bytes anyway.
I'll admit, I have been a fan of SpaceX, one of Elon Musk's other companies. I'm a fan of innovation in science and space. SpaceX has done well. Sometimes private sector can innovate in ways that government is more clumsy at.
Still, SpaceX wouldn't be that far along if it wasn't for the lucrative business they have gotten from NASA (government) as a customer.
Public private partnership can be a good thing.
Musk's Ego may has gotten him into a few binds. Hopefully that situation doesn't sink SpaceX.
Corporate executives like to say things like "I built this," which may be partially true. I prefer a concept, expressed by former President Obama. Our personal triumphs "stand on the shoulders of others."
He couldn't have built it without his employees, the larger community and those who have built before us.
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